Match Info

Copa Paulista - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Alfredo de Castilho (Bauru)


	EC Noroeste		São José-SP

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.95	3.40
	2.08	2.82	3.55	Watch
	2.20	2.72	3.47
	2.37	2.97	3.05
	2.17	2.65	3.40
	2.29	3.22	3.12
	2.04	2.95	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.19)	2.9 ↓ (3.11)	3.35 ↑ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC Noroeste
41.5%

Draw
31.3%

São José-SP
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

28.9%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

28%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC Noroeste has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

São José-SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC Noroeste than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São José-SP than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

EC Noroeste - São José SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 77. Bruno Lopes 11. Elicley 23. Igor 10. Leo Ceara 18. Lucas Douglas 13. Luiz Henrique 44. Maycon 33. Ronaldo Alves (C) 6. Vinicius Guedes 95. Yuri Ferraz	22. Joao Lucas (G) 28. Carlos Henrique 34. Guilherme Santos 11. Jeffinho 4. Joao Ramos 27. Natan Masiero 9. Neto Oliveira 29. Otavio 7. Thomaz 10. Vitinho 3. Wesley Rodrigues (C)
Substitutes
20. Caua A. 99. Henrique LIma (G) 16. Joao Prado 30. Leocovick 5. Lucas Costa 17. Matheus Goias 27. Pacheco 7. Pedro Felipe 9. Rafael Silva 22. Renan Araujo 72. Rodolfo 15. Taua	17. Fernando Neto 14. Gabriel Ramos 30. Guilherme 16. Guilherme Martineli 6. Iury 5. Jeferson Lima 19. Joao Guilherme 20. Lucas Andre 8. Mauricio 33. Micael 1. Rafael Puridade (G) 18. Tche Tche

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', Vitinho ↓, Fernando Neto ↑,
29', 0 - 1, Neto Oliveira ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Bruno Lopes ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Natan Masiero 🟨,
57', Lucas Douglas ↓, Pedro Felipe ↑,
57', Luiz Henrique ↓, Leocovick ↑,
63', Guilherme Santos ↓, Guilherme ↑,
63', Neto Oliveira ↓, Jeferson Lima ↑,
63', Otavio ↓, Tche Tche ↑,
76', Igor ↓, Rodolfo ↑,
76', Leo Ceara ↓, Taua ↑,
81', Bruno Lopes ↓, Rafael Silva ↑,
85', Fernando Neto ↓, Mauricio ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Noroeste is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

São José-SP has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Noroeste could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Noroeste is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Noroeste has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Noroeste
Brazilian Copa Paulista
19.09.26	EC Noroeste - EC Primavera	1:0 penalties ✺
12.09.26	EC Primavera - EC Noroeste	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	EC Noroeste - Comercial SP	4:3 ✺
19.08.26	União São João - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Piracicaba - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WTWTT
- São José-SP
Brazilian Copa Paulista
19.09.26	São José-SP - Comercial SP	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Comercial SP - São José-SP	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	São José-SP - São Caetano	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	EC São Bernardo - São José-SP	2:3 ✺
02.08.26	Santo André - São José-SP	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
17.01.24	São José-SP - EC Noroeste	2:1

EC Noroeste - São José-SP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide