Match Info
Serie D - Round 11Date: 5 July 2025, SaturdayLocation: Estadio Passo d'Areia (Porto Alegre)
|
 |
|
 |
|
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EC São José Porto Alegre |
|
Guarany de Bagé |
|
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.6 |
3.6 |
4.75 |
|
 |
1.38 |
3.9 |
7.7 |
|
 |
1.52 |
3.65 |
6.9 |
|
 |
1.63 |
3.46 |
6.03 |
|
 |
1.56 |
3.69 |
4.86 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.54 ↑
(1.52) |
3.66 ↓
(3.9) |
6.05 ↑
(5) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
- The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
EC São José Porto Alegre
59.7% | Draw
25.1% | Guarany de Bagé
15.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
EC São José Porto Alegre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)Guarany de Bagé has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC São José Porto Alegre than the current prediction. (+2.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarany de Bagé than the current prediction. (+1.8%)EC São José Porto Alegre - Guarany de Bagé Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 53', 0 - 1, ⚽,
Preview
One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 8).EC São José is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).Guarany de Bagé's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).EC São José may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, EC São José is seen as the favorite.We predict that EC São José will win today's game, with odds of 1.58.In the last 3 head-to-head matches, EC São José won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).Including home matches between the teams, EC São José won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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