Match Info

National League - Round 42

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Stonebridge Road Stadium (Northfleet)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Canada	DAZN Canada
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Spain	DAZN Espana
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
United-kingdom	DAZN 1 UK
Usa	DAZN USA


	Ebbsfleet United		Sutton United

	1	X	2
	3.4	4	1.83
	4.5	3.8	1.58
	3.9	3.85	1.81
	3.84	3.82	1.84
	3.46	4.07	1.87
	3.9	3.85	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.83 ↓ (4.01)	3.9 ↓ (4.1)	1.79 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ebbsfleet United
24.2%

Draw
23.8%

Sutton United
51.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23%

22.5%

54.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

22.1%

55.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ebbsfleet United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Sutton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ebbsfleet United than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sutton United than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Ebbsfleet United - Sutton United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cousins M. (G) 27. Bolger A. 18. Carr R. 22. Chapman B. 28. Cosgrave A. 17. Edser T. 36. Manktelow M. 11. Moncur G. 24. Olagunju M. 2. O'Neil L. 7. Passley J.	1. Sims J. (G) 17. Boateng N. 9. Davies W. 4. French T. 15. Muller H. 24. Nadesan A. 5. Ransom H. 8. Simper L. 33. Topalloj B. 12. Vaz E. 20. Wadham J.
Substitutes
35. Anthony E. 37. Aoraha A. 32. Goddard F. (G) 45. Harriott C. 14. Poleon D.	32. Fennelow J. 22. Jackson R. 31. Kerbey M. (G) 6. Odelusi S. 27. Tume V. 30. Woodyard A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', O'Neil L. ↓, Aoraha A. ↑,
45', 1 - 0, Carr R. ⚽, Aoraha A. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
50', Topalloj B. 🟨,
51', 2 - 0, Olagunju M. ⚽,
52', 2 - 1, Simper L. ⚽,
60', Ransom H. 🟨,
68', 3 - 1, Cosgrave A. ⚽, Chapman B. (A),
70', Vaz E. ↓, Odelusi S. ↑,
77', 4 - 1, Cosgrave A. ⚽, Aoraha A. (A),
81', Moncur G. ↓, Harriott C. ↑,
81', Nadesan A. ↓, Tume V. ↑,
81', Davies W. ↓, Fennelow J. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation and 12).

Ebbsfleet is Relegated to

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ebbsfleet won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Ebbsfleet could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Sutton is a favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Ebbsfleet won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 17:20 (average 1.2:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Ebbsfleet won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:3 (average 1.2:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Ebbsfleet United - the odds 4.01 are the expected chance of winning is 23.01%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ebbsfleet United
English National League
05.04.25	Hartlepool United - Ebbsfleet United	3:2 ✺
29.03.25	Ebbsfleet United - Altrincham	2:2 ✺
22.03.25	Aldershot Town - Ebbsfleet United	3:3 ✺
15.03.25	Ebbsfleet United - Fylde	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Solihull Moors - Ebbsfleet United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LTTWL
- Sutton United
English National League
08.04.25	Sutton United - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Sutton United - Southend United	1:1 ✺
English National League Cup
01.04.25	Braintree Town - Sutton United	0:1 penalties ✺
English National League
29.03.25	Boston United - Sutton United	2:1 ✺
22.03.25	Sutton United - Dagenham & Redbridge	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English FA Trophy
07.12.24	Sutton United - Ebbsfleet United	4:3 penalties
English National League
21.09.24	Sutton United - Ebbsfleet United	3:2
01.02.20	Ebbsfleet United - Sutton United	1:1
26.10.19	Sutton United - Ebbsfleet United	2:3
26.01.19	Sutton United - Ebbsfleet United	1:0
14.08.18	Ebbsfleet United - Sutton United	0:1
21.04.18	Ebbsfleet United - Sutton United	0:1

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