Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua (Eibar)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Spain	M+ LaLiga
Usa	ESPN+


	Eibar		Elche

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.3	2.01	Watch
	3.55	3.25	2.02
	3.76	3.35	2.11
	2.81	2.96	2.71	Watch
	3.5	3.1	2.1	Watch
	3.63	3.25	2.22	Watch
	3.6	3.2	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↑ (3.41)	3.2 ↓ (3.28)	2.18 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Eibar
27%

Draw
29.6%

Elche
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

28.1%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

28%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Eibar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Elche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Eibar aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elche than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	28.6%	61.9%

Eibar - Elche Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Eibar will win (votes: 2 - 10%). Elche will win (votes: 13 - 65%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Elche: 44.1% – 85.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Elche (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Eibar (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Elche will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Eibar (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Elche (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopez L. (G) 22. Rodriguez A. 4. Arambarri A. 21. Moreno M. 3. Arrillaga H. 19. Villa T. 30. Garrido A. 14. Olaetxea L. 18. Ares A. 11. Magunazelaia Argoitia J. 9. Bautista J. (C)	1. Dituro M. (G) 35. Houary A. 30. Mendoza R. 32. Boayar A. 20. Rodriguez A. 21. Petrot L. 3. Pedrosa A. 4. Diaby B. 5. Redondo Solari F. 17. Josan (C) 18. Donald J.
Substitutes
6. Alvarez S. 23. Arbilla A. 24. Buta L. 17. Corpas J. 33. Delgado M. 27. Garcia H. 20. Javier Marton 31. Lopez J. 16. Madariaga A. 13. Magunagoitia J. (G) 8. Nolaskoain P.	22. Affengruber D. 8. Aguado M. 23. Chust V. 39. Fort H. 45. Iturbe A. (G) 37. Martinez A. 10. Mir R. 16. Neto M. 13. Pena I. (G) 29. Piri 7. Santiago Y.
Coaches
San Jose B.	Sarabia E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Boayar A. ⚽,
41', Dituro M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Donald J. 🟨,
58', Houary A. 🟨,
60', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
63', Josan ↓, Neto M. ↑,
64', Houary A. ↓, Fort H. ↑,
68', Olaetxea L. ↓, Alvarez S. ↑,
68', Villa T. ↓, Madariaga A. ↑,
68', Rodriguez A. ↓, Corpas J. ↑,
71', Corpas J. (Penalty Awarded),
72', Mendoza R. ↓, Aguado M. ↑,
73', Boayar A. ↓, Santiago Y. ↑,
76', Magunazelaia Argoitia J. ↓, Javier Marton ↑,
81', Ares A. ↓, Garcia H. ↑,
82', Diaby B. ↓, Affengruber D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Eibar won 1.

Eibar is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Elche has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Eibar won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Eibar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Eibar - the odds 3.41 are the expected chance of winning is 27.05%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Eibar
Spanish LaLiga2
13.12.25	Córdoba - Eibar	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Eibar - Leonesa	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Pontevedra - Eibar	0:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
30.11.25	Racing Santander - Eibar	4:0 ✺
22.11.25	Eibar - Zaragoza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TLWLL
- Elche CF
Spanish LaLiga
13.12.25	Mallorca - Elche	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Elche - Girona	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Quintanar del Rey - Elche	1:2 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga
28.11.25	Getafe - Elche	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Elche - Real Madrid	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
24.01.25	Elche - Eibar	2:0
02.11.24	Eibar - Elche	0:2
18.02.24	Elche - Eibar	0:0
19.08.23	Eibar - Elche	2:1
Spanish LaLiga
20.02.21	Elche - Eibar	1:0
30.09.20	Eibar - Elche	0:1
16.02.15	Eibar - Elche	0:1

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