The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Independiente del Valle 66.5%
Draw 21.2%
El Nacional 12.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
69.6%
18.8%
11.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
73.5%
17.8%
11.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)
El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
77.8%
11.1%
11.1%
Independiente del Valle - El Nacional Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). El Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Confidence interval (95%) for Ind del Valle: 50.6% – 100%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
DC - El Nacional (2.42) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
AH 0, 1st Half - El Nacional (4.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. El Nacional (votes: 3 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Villar G. (G) 13. Fernandez M. 14. Carabajal M. 5. Schunke R. 15. Cortez G. 6. Alcivar J. 7. Mercado P. 16. Briones R. 26. Cazares 17. Rodriguez A. 77. Spinelli C.
12. Cabezas D. (G) 32. Bedoya A. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 5. Flor F. 77. Hernandez B. 17. Velez C. 13. Caicedo E. 15. Cela A. 55. Mejia Moreira J. D. 10. Borja J. 99. Reasco D.
Substitutes
21. Arroyo J. P. 12. Bores E. (G) 55. Guagua D. 11. Hoyos M. 32. Mendez J. 31. Pata E. 53. Quinonez L. 4. Quinonez O. 23. Santamaria T. 10. Sornoza J. 52. Vasquez Y. 33. Velasco A.
56. Benalcazar L. 59. Borja F. 11. Branda V. 1. Chala L. (G) 9. De Jesus B. 66. Estupinan W. 20. Guisamano J. 60. Maya J. 2. Mazamba S. 26. Mena A. 25. Montano M. 28. Puente J.
Coaches
Rabanal J.
Perez J. C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Hernandez B. 🟨,
45+1', Briones R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 1 - 0, Mercado P. ⚽,
55', Mejia Moreira J. D. 🟨,
59', Briones R. ↓, Arroyo J. P. ↑,
59', Velez C. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
67', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
72', Spinelli C. ↓, Hoyos M. ↑,
73', Cazares ↓, Guagua D. ↑,
76', Bedoya A. 🟨,
85', Arroyo J. P. 🟨,
89', Borja J. ↓, Maya J. ↑,
90+1', Rodriguez A. ↓, Pata E. ↑,
Preview
One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 3.
Ind del Valle is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
El Nacional has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
El Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Ind del Valle is the clear favorite.
We predict that Ind del Valle will win today's game, with odds of 1.31.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 37:26. (average 1.9:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Ind del Valle won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).
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Villar G. (G) 
Fernandez M. 
Cortez G. 
Rabanal J. 
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