Match Info

Serie B - Round 1

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+


	El Nacional		Independiente Juniors

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.6	5	1.42
	3.9	3.8	1.7	Watch
	4.37	5.04	1.52
	4.44	5.19	1.53	Watch
	6	5	1.33
	4.53	4.9	1.48
	1.53	3.8	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.2 ↑ (1.5)	4.68 ↑ (3.85)	2 ↓ (5.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Nacional
25%

Draw
22.4%

Independiente Juniors
52.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.5%

23.6%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-35.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that El Nacional's form might have worsened.

Independiente Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+36.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente Juniors's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

El Nacional - Independiente Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. El Nacional will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Independiente Jr will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for El Nacional: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. El Nacional (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Independiente Jr (2.06) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - El Nacional (4.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - El Nacional (3.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - El Nacional (2.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. El Nacional (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Independiente Jr (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 1.

In this match, El Nacional is the team to beat.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ind. Juniors	28	12	11	5	35:23	12	47

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.12.25	Emelec - El Nacional	5:0 ✺
07.12.25	El Nacional - SD Aucas	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Deportivo Macará - El Nacional	2:0 ✺
21.11.25	Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional	5:0 ✺
09.11.25	El Nacional - Emelec	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWLLW
- Independiente Juniors
Ecuadorian Serie B
29.10.25	Independiente Juniors - San Antonio	6:2 ✺
26.10.25	Guayaquil City - Independiente Juniors	1:1 ✺
16.10.25	Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo	2:1 ✺
07.10.25	9 de Octubre - Independiente Juniors	2:1 ✺
03.10.25	Leones del Norte - Independiente Juniors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
01.10.22	El Nacional - Independiente Juniors	1:1
23.08.22	Independiente Juniors - El Nacional	4:1
27.07.22	El Nacional - Independiente Juniors	2:1
15.03.22	Independiente Juniors - El Nacional	0:0
13.10.21	Independiente Juniors - El Nacional	1:1
04.07.21	El Nacional - Independiente Juniors	1:0
13.06.21	Independiente Juniors - El Nacional	1:3

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