Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 18

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Mushuc Runa		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	5.00	3.75	1.57	Watch
	4.50	3.50	1.63
	4.40	3.60	1.73	Watch
	5.08	3.85	1.70
	4.61	3.69	1.74	Watch
	4.95	3.80	1.66
	4.93	3.71	1.68	Watch
	4.80	3.60	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.78 ↑ (3.2)	3.69 ↑ (3.4)	1.67 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
19.4%

Draw
25.1%

Independiente del Valle
55.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

27.2%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

26.9%

44.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mushuc Runa's form might have worsened.

Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente del Valle's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mushuc Runa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	0%	63.6%

Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Ind del Valle will win (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind del Valle: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (C) 26. Peralta K. 2. Flor F. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 33. Hernandez J. 99. Angulo C. 18. Gonzalez J. 5. Davila E. 7. Minda T. 30. Ibarra R. 9. Carrillo R.	1. Quintana A. (G) 4. Espinoza J. 14. Carabajal M. 5. Schunke R. 19. Loor L. 32. Mendez J. 17. Rodriguez A. 16. Briones R. 10. Sornoza J. (C) 31. Pata E. 99. Reasco D.
Substitutes
14. Caicedo E. 12. Carabali F. 22. Collaguazo J. (G) 50. Cusme J. 52. Merino D. 42. Pabon W. (G) 8. Zambrano A.	6. Alcivar J. 50. Angulo J. 15. Cortez G. 55. Guagua D. 70. Peralta M. (G) 11. Perello M. 28. Quintana H. 56. Quintero E. 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 52. Vasquez Y. 33. Velasco A. 23. Viacava J.
Coaches
Velez P.	Papa J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', 0 - 1, Reasco D. ⚽, Pata E. (A),
35', 0 - 2, Sornoza J. ⚽, Loor L. (A),
44', Flor F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
49', 0 - 3, Reasco D. ⚽,
56', Espinoza J. 🟨,
58', Angulo C. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
58', Gonzalez J. ↓, Zambrano A. ↑,
63', Sornoza J. ↓, Guagua D. ↑,
64', Briones R. ↓, Quintana H. ↑,
64', Rodriguez A. ↓, Perello M. ↑,
66', 1 - 3, Davila E. ⚽,
74', Mendez J. 🟨,
76', Hernandez J. ↓, Cusme J. ↑,
76', Carrillo R. ↓, Merino D. ↑,
76', Mendez J. ↓, Alcivar J. ↑,
76', Pata E. ↓, Quintero E. ↑,
85', Mancilla Quinones J. L. 🟨,
88', Ibarra R. ↓, Carabali F. ↑,
90', 1 - 4, Perello M. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 0.

Mushuc Runa has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ind del Valle is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ind del Valle is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 22:37. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:19. (average 1.2:1.9).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	30	24	2	4	73:33	40	74

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente del Valle - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.98%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
06.07.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Mushuc Runa	2:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
03.06.26	Gualaceo - Mushuc Runa	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
31.05.26	Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
23.05.26	Mushuc Runa - Guayaquil City	2:2 ✺
17.05.26	Leones del Norte - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WLTTL
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Copa
08.07.26	Deportivo Santo Domingo - Independiente del Valle	0:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.07.26	Independiente del Valle - Manta	4:0 ✺
31.05.26	Guayaquil City - Independiente del Valle	2:4 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.05.26	Independiente del Valle - Rosario Central	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.05.26	Independiente del Valle - Libertad Loja	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.03.26	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	3:1
20.09.25	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	2:2
Copa Sudamericana
19.08.25	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	2:2 penalties
12.08.25	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	1:0
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.05.25	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	2:1
05.10.24	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	1:1
18.04.24	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	2:1

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