Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga2 - Round 12

Date: 27 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero (Elche)

Referee: Sesma Espinosa M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, Gol Stadium, LaLiga Hypermotion 2, LaLiga TV Bar 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Venezuela	Inter
World	DirecTV Sports


	Elche		Burgos

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	5.25	Watch
	1.7	3.3	4.8
	1.72	3.5	5	Watch
	1.73	3.52	5.76
	1.77	3.44	5.17	Watch
	1.75	3.52	5.15	Watch
	1.72	3.5	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.23)	3.47 ↑ (3.15)	5.16 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elche
54.6%

Draw
27.2%

Burgos
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

29.7%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

28.9%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elche has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elche's performance.

Burgos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Burgos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elche than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elche that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Burgos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.7%	5.6%	5.6%

Elche - Burgos Predictions

Users Predictions: 71 users predict this event. Elche will win (votes: 63 - 88.7%). Burgos will win (votes: 4 - 5.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Elche: 81.3% – 96.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Dituro M. (G) 15. Nunez A. 22. Affengruber D. 6. Bigas P. 12. Salinas J. 10. Mercau N. 30. Mendoza R. 14. Febas A. 24. Santiago Y. 36. Nunez R. 9. Alvarez A.	13. Cantero A. (G) 20. Pipa 18. Aitor Cordoba 2. Lopez L. 27. Lopez D. 38. Forns I. 16. Curro 6. Navarro R. 5. Atienza M. 14. Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 19. Espiau Hernandez E. D.
Substitutes
16. Alex Martin 26. Barzic M. 21. Castro N. 19. El Ghezouani M. 8. Guti R. 31. Hernandez G. 35. Houary A. 18. Kaba S. 2. Mario Gaspar 11. Rashani E. 20. Salvador C. 1. San Roman M. (G)	11. Alex 4. Arroyo A. 1. Badiashile L. (G) 21. Cordoba I. 3. Miguel F. 23. Morante I. 9. Nino F. 22. Rodriguez T. 10. Sanchez B.
Coaches
Sarabia E.	Bolo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Mendoza R. ⚽, Salinas J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gonzalez Ballesteros D. ↓, Alex ↑,
46', Forns I. ↓, Cordoba I. ↑,
46', Aitor Cordoba ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,
50', Atienza M. 🟨,
59', Atienza M. ↓, Morante I. ↑,
67', Nunez R. ↓, Mario Gaspar ↑,
67', Alvarez A. ↓, El Ghezouani M. ↑,
73', Santiago Y. ↓, Rashani E. ↑,
73', Navarro R. ↓, Nino F. ↑,
78', Mendoza R. 🟨,
79', Bigas P. ↓, Barzic M. ↑,
79', Mendoza R. ↓, Guti R. ↑,
80', Morante I. 🟨,
88', Barzic M. 🟨,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 11 and 13).

Recent matches Elche is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Burgos is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Burgos could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Elche is a favorite.

There will not play in Elche: Diaby B. (Knee Injury) Josan (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Burgos: Alex (Muscle Injury) Appin K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Elche: Clerc C. (Hip Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Elche won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:4 (average 1:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Elche won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elche CF
Spanish LaLiga2
23.10.24	Cartagena - Elche	0:0 ✺
20.10.24	Elche - Sporting de Gijón	2:1 ✺
13.10.24	Elche - Deportivo A Coruña	0:0 ✺
05.10.24	Ferrol - Elche	1:0 ✺
28.09.24	Málaga - Elche	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWTLW
- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
24.10.24	Burgos - Ferrol	1:1 ✺
21.10.24	Albacete Balompié - Burgos	2:0 ✺
13.10.24	Burgos - Mirandés	0:1 ✺
05.10.24	Almería - Burgos	2:0 ✺
29.09.24	Burgos - Granada	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
02.02.24	Elche - Burgos	2:0
23.09.23	Burgos - Elche	4:0

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