Match Info

Estonian Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 30 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Nike Arena (Elva)


	Elva		Tallinna JK Legion

	1	X	2
	1.23	6.25	7.5
	1.16	6.7	9.8
	1.19	8.09	6.86
	1.11	9.49	11.84	Watch
	1.2	6	9
	1.2	8.2	8.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↓ (1.34)	7.46 ↑ (6.32)	8.96 ↑ (5.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elva
77.5%

Draw
12.3%

Tallinna JK Legion
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.7%

14.4%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.5%

13.7%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elva's performance.

Tallinna JK Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tallinna JK Legion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elva than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elva that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tallinna JK Legion than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tallinna JK Legion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Elva - Tallinna JK Legion Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.75 - Elva (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Elva (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elva won 4.

Recent performances by Elva have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Legion is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Elva may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Elva is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Elva won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:22. (average 1.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Elva won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1.7:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Elva
Estonian Esiliiga
26.07.25	Elva - Tammeka U21	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Elva - Viimsi JK	0:3 ✺
12.07.25	Flora U21 - Elva	2:0 ✺
05.07.25	Elva - Tallinna Kalev U21	5:3 ✺
28.06.25	Nõmme United - Elva	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLWL
- Tallinna JK Legion
Estonian Esiliiga B
26.07.25	Läänemaa Haapsalu - Tallinna JK Legion	0:4 ✺
11.07.25	Tabasalu - Tallinna JK Legion	1:4 ✺
05.07.25	Tartu Kalev - Tallinna JK Legion	0:1 ✺
29.06.25	Tallinna JK Legion - Narva Trans U21	0:4 ✺
19.06.25	Tallinna JK Legion - Paide U21	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
24.11.24	Elva - Tallinna JK Legion	6:0
17.11.24	Tallinna JK Legion - Elva	0:3
05.11.23	Tallinna JK Legion - Elva	1:4
19.08.23	Elva - Tallinna JK Legion	0:0
13.05.23	Tallinna JK Legion - Elva	0:3
15.04.23	Elva - Tallinna JK Legion	3:2
Estonian Meistriliiga
27.11.22	Tallinna JK Legion - Elva	0:1

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