Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 32

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde (Spiesen-Elversberg)

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Elversberg		Paderborn

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.75	3	Watch
	2.1	3.8	3.1
	2.1	3.65	3	Watch
	2.26	3.85	3.19
	2.16	3.81	3.07	Watch
	2.15	3.5	2.9	Watch
	2.16	3.6	3.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (2.09)	3.71 ↓ (3.98)	3.05 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elversberg
43.7%

Draw
25.4%

Paderborn
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

23.7%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

24.3%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elversberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elversberg than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Elversberg - Paderborn Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Elversberg will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Paderborn will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Kristof N. (G) 30. Gyamerah J. 31. Rohr M. 3. Le Joncour F. 21. Gunther L. 6. Conde A. (C) 8. Poreba L. 25. Petkov L. 22. Pherai I. 29. Zimmerschied T. 42. Mokwa Ntusu D.	41. Seimen D. (G) 25. Scheller T. 20. Gotze F. (C) 4. Brackelmann C. 17. Curda L. 14. Baur M. 5. Castaneda S. 3. Sticker J. 2. Muller R. 7. Bilbija F. 30. Marino S.
Substitutes
15. Adam R. 28. Boss T. (G) 10. Conte B. 14. Malanga J. 2. Mickelson N. 16. Pfeiffer L. 17. Schmahl F. 24. Schnellbacher L. 23. Sickinger C.	9. Batzner N. 22. Hansen M. 8. Kinsombi D. 26. Klaas S. 11. Michel S. 24. Mohr N. 10. Okpala K. 1. Schubert M. (G) 27. Tigges S.
Coaches
Wagner V.	Kettemann R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Rohr M. ⚽, Petkov L. (A),
17', 2 - 0, Mokwa Ntusu D. ⚽, Gunther L. (A),
28', 3 - 0, Petkov L. ⚽, Poreba L. (A),
38', Gyamerah J. 🟨,
41', 4 - 0, Petkov L. ⚽, Zimmerschied T. (A),
43', Pherai I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Muller R. ↓, Okpala K. ↑,
46', Gotze F. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
47', Scheller T. 🟨,
62', Gunther L. ↓, Mickelson N. ↑,
62', Baur M. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
64', Conde A. 🟨,
65', 4 - 1, Brackelmann C. ⚽, Batzner N. (A),
68', Marino S. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
73', Petkov L. ↓, Malanga J. ↑,
73', Pherai I. ↓, Schmahl F. ↑,
74', Okpala K. 🟨,
78', Tigges S. 🟨,
81', Scheller T. ↓, Mohr N. ↑,
85', Mokwa Ntusu D. ↓, Schnellbacher L. ↑,
85', Zimmerschied T. ↓, Adam R. ↑,
90', Batzner N. 🟨,
90+3', 5 - 1, Adam R. ⚽, Schnellbacher L. (A),
90+5', Tigges S. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

Elversberg has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paderborn is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Elversberg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Elversberg is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Elversberg: Conte B. (Injury) Dragon P. (Knee Injury) Pinckert L. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Paderborn: Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury) Obermair R. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elversberg won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Elversberg won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 2.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Elversberg - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 45.2%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SV Elversberg
German 2 Bundesliga
25.04.26	Darmstadt - Elversberg	3:3 ✺
17.04.26	Elversberg - Karlsruher	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Elversberg - Schalke 04	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Hannover - Elversberg	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
26.03.26	Hoffenheim - Elversberg	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 TWLTW
- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
26.04.26	Paderborn - Schalke 04	2:3 ✺
18.04.26	Hannover - Paderborn	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Paderborn - Magdeburg	4:3 ✺
05.04.26	Greuther Fürth - Paderborn	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Paderborn - Dynamo Dresden	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
06.12.25	Paderborn - Elversberg	1:2
26.04.25	Paderborn - Elversberg	1:1
30.11.24	Elversberg - Paderborn	1:3
27.04.24	Paderborn - Elversberg	3:1
25.11.23	Elversberg - Paderborn	4:1

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