Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 31

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn)

Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Paderborn		Schalke 04

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.38	3.25	2.88
	2.51	3.43	3.05
	5.51	1.40	5.97	Watch
	2.4	3.4	2.63
	2.43	3.16	2.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.31)	2.99 ↓ (3.26)	3.37 ↑ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paderborn
34.9%

Draw
34.5%

Schalke 04
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

28.6%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

27.4%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paderborn's form might have worsened.

Schalke 04 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paderborn, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	13.3%	33.3%

Paderborn - Schalke 04 Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Paderborn will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Schalke will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Seimen D. (G) 25. Scheller T. 20. Gotze F. (C) 4. Brackelmann C. 17. Curda L. 14. Baur M. 5. Castaneda S. 7. Bilbija F. 3. Sticker J. 30. Marino S. 2. Muller R.	1. Karius L. (G) 5. Becker T. 43. Ayhan M. 4. Kurucay H. 16. N'Diaye M. 23. El-Faouzi S. 6. Schallenberg R. 24. Aouchiche A. 21. Ljubicic D. 9. Sylla M. 19. Karaman K. (C)
Substitutes
9. Batzner N. 22. Hansen M. 8. Kinsombi D. 26. Klaas S. 11. Michel S. 24. Mohr N. 10. Okpala K. 1. Schubert M. (G) 27. Tigges S.	18. Antwi-Adjei C. 14. Bachmann J. 33. Becker V. 17. Gantenbein A. 7. Gomis C. 37. Gruger M. 3. Leonard D. 22. Muller K. (G) 2. Sanchez F.
Coaches
Kettemann R.	Muslic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
13', 1 - 0, Curda L. ⚽, Baur M. (A),
26', 2 - 0, Marino S. ⚽,
35', 2 - 1, Ljubicic D. ⚽, N'Diaye M. (A),
40', 2 - 2, Aouchiche A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
66', Muller R. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
80', Marino S. ↓, Okpala K. ↑,
83', 2 - 3, Ljubicic D. ⚽,
85', Sticker J. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
85', Bilbija F. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
86', N'Diaye M. ↓, Becker V. ↑,
86', Ljubicic D. ↓, Gantenbein A. ↑,
88', Sylla M. ↓, Bachmann J. ↑,
90+1', Aouchiche A. 🟨,
90+1', Aouchiche A. ↓, Gomis C. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 2.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Schalke may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Paderborn: Bauerle A. (Ankle Injury) Copado L. (Muscle Injury) Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Schalke: Dzeko E. (Shoulder Injury) Hojlund E. (Heel Injury) Kalas T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Katic N. (Knee Injury) Matriciani H. (Knee Injury) Porath F. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Paderborn: Obermair R. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 16:30. (average 1.1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paderborn won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:16. (average 1.1:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Paderborn - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 40.4%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
18.04.26	Hannover - Paderborn	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Paderborn - Magdeburg	4:3 ✺
05.04.26	Greuther Fürth - Paderborn	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Paderborn - Dynamo Dresden	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Paderborn	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWWWT
- Schalke 04
German 2 Bundesliga
19.04.26	Schalke 04 - Preußen Münster	4:1 ✺
12.04.26	Elversberg - Schalke 04	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Schalke 04 - Karlsruher	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.03.26	Schweinfurt - Schalke 04	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
21.03.26	Darmstadt - Schalke 04	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
28.11.25	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	2:1
02.05.25	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	0:2
06.12.24	Paderborn - Schalke 04	2:4
09.03.24	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	3:3
29.09.23	Paderborn - Schalke 04	3:1
18.02.22	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	2:0
12.09.21	Paderborn - Schalke 04	0:1

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