Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 31

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	08:30	Disney+, ESPN, FOX Sports
Armenia	15:30	Fast Sports
Australia	21:30	beIN Connect, ESPN
Austria	13:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	13:30	Arena Sport 5P
Brazil	08:30	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	14:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	07:30	DAZN Canada
Chile	07:30	Disney+
Colombia	06:30	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	13:30	SportKlub 5
Czech Republic	13:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	13:30	Viaplay
Finland	14:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	13:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	13:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, WOW
Greece	14:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Iceland	11:30	Viaplay
Israel	14:30	Sport 3
Italy	13:30	Sky Sport MIX
Laos	18:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	13:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	05:30	Sky Sport
Netherlands	13:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	23:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	13:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	13:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	06:30	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Portugal	12:30	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	14:30	Prima Sport PPV 3
Saudi Arabia	14:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	13:30	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	19:30	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	13:30	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	13:30	Sport TV1
Spain	13:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	13:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	13:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Thailand	18:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	14:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Uruguay	08:30	Disney+
Usa	07:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	07:30	Disney+, ESPN
International	11:30	Onefootball


	Paderborn		Schalke 04

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.38	3.25	2.88
	2.51	3.43	3.05
	5.51	1.40	5.97	Watch
	2.4	3.4	2.63
	2.43	3.16	2.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.31)	2.99 ↓ (3.26)	3.37 ↑ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paderborn
34.9%

Draw
34.5%

Schalke 04
30.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.4%

28.6%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

27.7%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paderborn's form might have worsened.

Schalke 04 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paderborn, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	13.3%	33.3%

Paderborn - Schalke 04 Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Paderborn will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Schalke will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Seimen D. (G) 25. Scheller T. 20. Gotze F. (C) 4. Brackelmann C. 17. Curda L. 14. Baur M. 5. Castaneda S. 7. Bilbija F. 3. Sticker J. 30. Marino S. 2. Muller R.	1. Karius L. (G) 5. Becker T. 43. Ayhan M. 4. Kurucay H. 16. N'Diaye M. 23. El-Faouzi S. 6. Schallenberg R. 24. Aouchiche A. 21. Ljubicic D. 9. Sylla M. 19. Karaman K. (C)
Substitutes
9. Batzner N. 22. Hansen M. 8. Kinsombi D. 26. Klaas S. 11. Michel S. 24. Mohr N. 10. Okpala K. 1. Schubert M. (G) 27. Tigges S.	18. Antwi-Adjei C. 14. Bachmann J. 33. Becker V. 17. Gantenbein A. 7. Gomis C. 37. Gruger M. 3. Leonard D. 22. Muller K. (G) 2. Sanchez F.
Coaches
Kettemann R.	Muslic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
13', 1 - 0, Curda L. ⚽, Baur M. (A),
26', 2 - 0, Marino S. ⚽,
35', 2 - 1, Ljubicic D. ⚽, N'Diaye M. (A),
40', 2 - 2, Aouchiche A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
66', Muller R. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
80', Marino S. ↓, Okpala K. ↑,
83', 2 - 3, Ljubicic D. ⚽,
85', Sticker J. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
85', Bilbija F. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
86', N'Diaye M. ↓, Becker V. ↑,
86', Ljubicic D. ↓, Gantenbein A. ↑,
88', Sylla M. ↓, Bachmann J. ↑,
90+1', Aouchiche A. 🟨,
90+1', Aouchiche A. ↓, Gomis C. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 2.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Schalke may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Paderborn: Bauerle A. (Ankle Injury) Copado L. (Muscle Injury) Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Schalke: Dzeko E. (Shoulder Injury) Hojlund E. (Heel Injury) Kalas T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Katic N. (Knee Injury) Matriciani H. (Knee Injury) Porath F. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Paderborn: Obermair R. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 16:30. (average 1.1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paderborn won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:16. (average 1.1:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Paderborn - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 40.4%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
18.04.26	Hannover - Paderborn	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Paderborn - Magdeburg	4:3 ✺
05.04.26	Greuther Fürth - Paderborn	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Paderborn - Dynamo Dresden	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Paderborn	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWWWT
- Schalke 04
German 2 Bundesliga
19.04.26	Schalke 04 - Preußen Münster	4:1 ✺
12.04.26	Elversberg - Schalke 04	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Schalke 04 - Karlsruher	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.03.26	Schweinfurt - Schalke 04	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
21.03.26	Darmstadt - Schalke 04	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
28.11.25	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	2:1
02.05.25	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	0:2
06.12.24	Paderborn - Schalke 04	2:4
09.03.24	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	3:3
29.09.23	Paderborn - Schalke 04	3:1
18.02.22	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	2:0
12.09.21	Paderborn - Schalke 04	0:1

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