Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 9

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Emelec		Guayaquil City

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.25	5	Watch
	1.72	3.3	4.65	Watch
	1.8	3.47	5.04
	1.74	3.47	4.97	Watch
	1.73	3.1	4.5
	1.82	3.23	4.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 (1.76)	3.3 ↓ (3.34)	4.82 ↓ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
52.7%

Draw
28.1%

Guayaquil City
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

28%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

28.6%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Guayaquil City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Emelec - Guayaquil City Predictions

Users Predictions: Emelec will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ortiz P. (C) 14. Caicedo R. 16. Quintero S. 51. Valencia S. 3. Guerrico I. 80. Herrera O. 5. Mina A. 6. Griffith V. 10. Pizzini F. 9. Neris J. 7. Klimowicz L.	1. Napa G. (G) 3. Rodriguez Y. 29. Quinonez J. 6. Arias R. (C) 17. Ayovi Caicedo J. J. 14. Arroyo D. 20. Laurino S. 70. Mancilla P. 10. Diaz D. 11. Mero E. 80. Gonzalez P.
Substitutes
18. Carabali M. 21. Cevallos J. 20. Gonzaga J. 30. Mina A. 25. Narvaez R. 19. Ruiz J. 4. Segura E. 28. Tobar B. 1. Valero M. (G) 24. Viteri A.	21. Andrade J. M. 51. Cabezas E. 8. Humanante J. 5. Julio M. 4. Ladines Calvache E. P. 19. Naula A. 16. Ordonez J. 9. Palma M. 12. Perea R. (G) 24. Plada G. 15. Sambonino K. 28. Vivar J.
Coaches
Sanchez V.	Gavilanez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Mero E. ⚽, Ayovi Caicedo J. J. (A),
28', Pizzini F. (Penalty Awarded),
28', 1 - 1, Klimowicz L. ⚽,
41', Guerrico I. 🟨,
45+1', Mina A. 🟨,
45+1', Neris J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Herrera O. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
54', 1 - 2, Diaz D. ⚽, Ayovi Caicedo J. J. (A),
68', Pizzini F. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
68', Guerrico I. ↓, Ruiz J. ↑,
71', Laurino S. ↓, Sambonino K. ↑,
71', Gonzalez P. ↓, Naula A. ↑,
73', Griffith V. 🟨,
82', Valencia S. 🟨,
84', 1 - 3, Diaz D. (Penalty Awarded),
85', Klimowicz L. ↓, Gonzaga J. ↑,
86', Rodriguez Y. ↓, Cabezas E. ↑,
86', Mina A. ↓, Segura E. ↑,
87', Mancilla P. ↓, Ordonez J. ↑,
89', Diaz D. ↓, Palma M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 12 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 2.

Emelec is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Guayaquil City has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Emelec may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Emelec is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:11. (average 1.5:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Emelec won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:7. (average 1.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.04.26	SD Aucas - Emelec	2:0 ✺
08.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Emelec - Deportivo Cuenca	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	2:0 ✺
19.03.26	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LTLLW
- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.04.26	Guayaquil City - Deportivo Macará	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Guayaquil City	4:1 ✺
23.03.26	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Manta - Guayaquil City	0:1 ✺
15.03.26	Guayaquil City - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Copa
22.10.25	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:1 penalties
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.11.23	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:0
29.05.23	Emelec - Guayaquil City	0:0
Club Friendly
11.02.23	Emelec - Guayaquil City	2:0
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.07.22	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:0
04.03.22	Emelec - Guayaquil City	2:2
30.10.21	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:1

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