Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 1

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Referee: Poveda K. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Emelec		Libertad Loja

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.60	5.00	Watch
	1.65	3.40	4.60
	1.65	3.70	5.10	Watch
	1.73	3.49	5.76
	1.64	3.69	5.47	Watch
	1.66	3.40	5.70
	1.68	3.63	5.04	Watch
	1.64	3.55	4.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.75)	3.56 ↑ (3.48)	5.18 ↑ (4.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
56%

Draw
26.1%

Libertad Loja
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

26.8%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

26.3%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Emelec - Libertad Loja Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ortiz P. (G) 80. Herrera O. 27. Leon F. (C) 2. Leguizamon A. 4. Segura E. 5. Mina A. 32. Valverde J. 21. Cevallos J. 11. Arce T. 19. Ruiz J. 59. Saya R.	12. Cabezas D. (C) 17. Patta E. 6. Caicedo B. 2. Morinigo R. 19. Quinonez O. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 70. Branda V. 63. Valencia C. 80. Pineda Arana X. E. 10. Cortez Casierra G. J. 33. Chere A.
Substitutes
99. Arboleda A. 17. Ayovi J. 26. Cuero I. 15. Fragozo L. 13. Gomez L. 6. Griffith V. 8. Napoli G. 16. Quintero S. 28. Tobar B. 51. Valencia S. 1. Valero M. (G) 24. Viteri A.	11. Batalla H. 30. Bravo J. 9. Caicedo E. 8. Castro S. 49. Coronel D. 66. Estacio J. 5. Gruezo C. 25. Lucas M. 1. Mina P. (G) 7. Orejuela C. 18. Quinonez Y.
Coaches
Medran E.	Buch J. P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Quinonez O. 🟨,
20', Herrera O. 🟨,
23', Caicedo B. 🟨,
23', Leguizamon A. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Saya R. ⚽, Arce T. (A),
32', Medran E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Quinonez O. ↓, Gruezo C. ↑,
46', Valencia C. ↓, Bravo J. ↑,
46', Arce T. ↓, Fragozo L. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Bravo J. ⚽, Cortez Casierra G. J. (A),
62', Herrera O. ↓, Gomez L. ↑,
73', Chere A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
73', Branda V. ↓, Batalla H. ↑,
75', Ruiz J. ↓, Napoli G. ↑,
75', Segura E. ↓, Valencia S. ↑,
78', Cortez Casierra G. J. ↓, Orejuela C. ↑,
82', Saya R. ↓, Ayovi J. ↑,
88', Leguizamon A. 🟨,
90', 1 - 2, Caicedo B. ⚽, Orejuela C. (A),
90+4', Caicedo E. 🟨,
90+5', Morinigo R. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Emelec carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Emelec has recorded 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:8 (averaging 1:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Emelec against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 5:4 goals (averaging 1:0.8 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.09.26	Deportivo Macará - Emelec	1:0 ✺
07.09.26	Emelec - Manta	1:0 ✺
03.09.26	Libertad Loja - Emelec	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Emelec - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	LDU Quito - Emelec	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWTWL
- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.09.26	Libertad Loja - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
06.09.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Libertad Loja	0:1 ✺
03.09.26	Libertad Loja - Emelec	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	SD Aucas - Libertad Loja	1:0 ✺
24.08.26	Libertad Loja - Deportivo Macará	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.09.26	Libertad Loja - Emelec	1:1
10.05.26	Emelec - Libertad Loja	1:1
03.08.25	Libertad Loja - Emelec	1:2
11.04.25	Emelec - Libertad Loja	1:1
30.11.24	Libertad Loja - Emelec	2:1
01.06.24	Emelec - Libertad Loja	0:0
04.08.23	Libertad Loja - Emelec	0:0

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