Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 1

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt (Guayaquil)

Referee: Cajas A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Ecuavisa, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Guayaquil City		Leones del Norte

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.10	3.00	Watch
	2.25	3.00	2.87
	2.25	3.05	3.35	Watch
	2.38	3.21	3.22
	2.26	3.16	3.29	Watch
	2.30	3.15	3.10
	2.27	3.13	3.23	Watch
	2.24	3.05	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.47)	3.11 ↑ (3.01)	3.14 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guayaquil City
40.6%

Draw
29.8%

Leones del Norte
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

31%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

30.4%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guayaquil City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Leones del Norte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (+1%)

Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Pinos J. (G) 17. Ayovi Caicedo J. J. 3. Rodriguez Y. 29. Quinonez J. 6. Arias R. (C) 14. Arroyo D. 20. Laurino S. 80. Gonzalez P. 21. Dorregaray D. 19. Naula A. 11. Mero E.	45. Nazareno L. (G) 32. Aguas A. 23. Monserrat N. 25. Kreiman B. 16. De La Cruz M. 5. Coppo T. 7. Luque M. 29. Madero P. 6. Griffa E. 99. Solano C. 40. Anangono J. (C)
Substitutes
51. Cabezas E. 33. Caicedo R. 7. Caicedo S. 4. Ladines Calvache E. P. 70. Mancilla P. 1. Napa G. (G) 16. Ordonez J. 9. Palma M. 12. Perea R. (G) 50. Rivadeneira F. 15. Sambonino K. 28. Vivar J.	17. Amilivia T. 22. Arroyo J. (G) 13. Cabeza J. 50. Caicedo M. 11. Caramuto M. 14. Folleco A. 2. Moran J. 31. Padilla G. 70. Pazmino D. 19. Pepinos E. 3. Vargas F. 8. Velez C.
Coaches
Gavilanez P.	Cordoba M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Aguas A. ↓, Moran J. ↑,
29', Arias R. 🟨,
32', Griffa E. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Luque M. ⚽, Madero P. (A),
43', Arroyo D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Quinonez J. ↓, Ladines Calvache E. P. ↑,
46', Naula A. ↓, Mancilla P. ↑,
57', Moran J. 🟨,
64', Gonzalez P. ↓, Vivar J. ↑,
66', Arias R. ↓, Ordonez J. ↑,
66', Griffa E. ↓, Caramuto M. ↑,
69', Rodriguez Y. 🟨,
88', Coppo T. 🟨,
90+2', Anangono J. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 1, Dorregaray D. (Penalty Awarded),
90+4', Madero P. 🟥,
90+5', Anangono J. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
90+5', Solano C. ↓, Pazmino D. ↑,
90+5', Luque M. ↓, Vargas F. ↑,
90+9', Dorregaray D. ↓, Palma M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guayaquil City won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Guayaquil City is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Guayaquil City has recorded 2 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:7 (averaging 0.6:0.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Guayaquil City against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 5:3 goals (averaging 0.8:0.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Guayaquil City - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 37.82%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.09.26	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
07.09.26	Orense - Guayaquil City	4:3 ✺
02.09.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Guayaquil City	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Guayaquil City - LDU Quito	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Técnico Universitario - Guayaquil City	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WLLWW
- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.09.26	Leones del Norte - Técnico Universitario	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Mushuc Runa - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
03.09.26	Leones del Norte - Orense	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Emelec - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
21.08.26	Leones del Norte - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.07.26	Leones del Norte - Guayaquil City	1:1
23.03.26	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	0:0
Ecuadorian Serie B
29.10.25	Leones del Norte - Guayaquil City	0:0
27.08.25	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	2:1
23.07.25	Leones del Norte - Guayaquil City	2:1
15.05.25	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	0:1
18.10.24	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	2:0

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