Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 4

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra (Ibarra) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Teran R. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Ecuador	11:30	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	11:30	Zapping Sports


	Leones del Norte		Libertad Loja

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.25	3.8	Watch
	1.93	3.20	3.40
	2	3.15	3.5	Watch
	2.04	3.35	4.08
	2.05	3.4	3.55	Watch
	2.01	3.2	3.85
	2	3.26	3.8	Watch
	2	3.2	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.94)	3.25 ↓ (3.44)	3.7 ↓ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones del Norte
46.4%

Draw
28.5%

Libertad Loja
25.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.1%

27.1%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27.5%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones del Norte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Leones del Norte - Libertad Loja Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Nazareno L. (G) 29. Madero P. 23. Monserrat N. 2. Moran J. 34. Portocarrero S. 5. Coppo T. 6. Griffa E. 11. Caramuto M. 99. Solano C. 7. Luque M. 40. Anangono J. (C)	12. Cabezas D. (C) 17. Patta E. 6. Caicedo B. 2. Morinigo R. 19. Quinonez O. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 70. Branda V. 80. Pineda Arana X. E. 30. Bravo J. 10. Cortez Casierra G. J. 33. Chere A.
Substitutes
32. Aguas A. 17. Amilivia T. 15. Araujo I. 18. Arellano J. 22. Arroyo J. (G) 50. Caicedo M. 16. De La Cruz M. 14. Folleco A. 25. Kreiman B. 31. Padilla G. 3. Vargas F. 8. Velez C.	11. Batalla H. 9. Caicedo E. 8. Castro S. 49. Coronel D. 5. Gruezo C. 25. Lucas M. 1. Mina P. (G) 7. Orejuela C. 63. Valencia C.
Coaches
Cordoba M.	Celico J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
31', 1 - 0, Caramuto M. ⚽, Solano C. (A),
38', 1 - 1, Branda V. ⚽,
45+2', Monserrat N. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Chere A. ↓, Orejuela C. ↑,
58', 2 - 1, Caramuto M. ⚽, Griffa E. (A),
61', 3 - 1, Madero P. ⚽, Anangono J. (A),
73', Bravo J. ↓, Valencia C. ↑,
73', Griffa E. 🟨,
73', Cortez Casierra G. J. 🟨,
74', Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
85', Morinigo R. ↓, Lucas M. ↑,
87', Branda V. ↓, Coronel D. ↑,
88', Solano C. ↓, Arellano J. ↑,
88', Madero P. ↓, Kreiman B. ↑,
90+1', Griffa E. ↓, Velez C. ↑,
90+5', Caramuto M. ↓, Caicedo M. ↑,
90+5', Luque M. ↓, Padilla G. ↑,
90+6', 4 - 1, Anangono J. ⚽, Arellano J. (A),

Preview

Leones del Norte is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Libertad shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Leones del Norte may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Leones del Norte holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:5 (averaging 1.3:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Leones del Norte against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.10.26	Leones del Norte - Emelec	1:3 ✺
09.10.26	Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Leones del Norte - Técnico Universitario	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Mushuc Runa - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLTLT
- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.10.26	Libertad Loja - Guayaquil City	4:0 ✺
09.10.26	Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Emelec - Libertad Loja	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Libertad Loja - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
06.09.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Libertad Loja	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.10.26	Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte	3:0
04.07.26	Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte	1:3
28.02.26	Leones del Norte - Libertad Loja	1:1

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