Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 3

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra (Ibarra) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Ecuador	14:00	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	14:00	Zapping Sports


	Leones del Norte		Emelec

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.1	4.2	Watch
	1.90	3.00	3.75
	1.95	3	3.9	Watch
	1.98	3.16	4.37
	1.95	3.16	4.28	Watch
	1.93	3.05	4.25
	1.95	3.11	4.23	Watch
	1.95	3.05	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.24)	3.08 ↑ (2.92)	4.1 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones del Norte
47.6%

Draw
29.9%

Emelec
22.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.1%

31.5%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

28.7%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones del Norte has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leones del Norte's performance.

Emelec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leones del Norte that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Emelec could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Leones del Norte - Emelec Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Arroyo J. (G) 4. Arroyo R. 23. Monserrat N. 25. Kreiman B. 34. Portocarrero S. 11. Caramuto M. 6. Griffa E. 5. Coppo T. 7. Luque M. 40. Anangono J. (C) 99. Solano C.	12. Ortiz P. (G) 80. Herrera O. 27. Leon F. (C) 2. Leguizamon A. 4. Segura E. 5. Mina A. 32. Valverde J. 10. Pizzini F. 59. Saya R. 19. Ruiz J. 9. Carrillo R.
Substitutes
17. Amilivia T. 18. Arellano J. 55. Borja R. 13. Cabeza J. 50. Caicedo M. 16. De La Cruz M. 14. Folleco A. 2. Moran J. 45. Nazareno L. (G) 70. Pazmino D. 3. Vargas F. 8. Velez C.	11. Arce T. 21. Cevallos J. 15. Fragozo L. 13. Gomez L. 6. Griffith V. 3. Guerrico I. 7. Klimowicz L. 8. Napoli G. 16. Quintero S. 51. Valencia S. 1. Valero M. (G)
Coaches
Cordoba M.	Medran E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Pizzini F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Segura E. ↓, Guerrico I. ↑,
52', Arroyo R. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
57', 1 - 0, Caramuto M. ⚽,
61', Monserrat N. 🟨,
62', 1 - 1, Carrillo R. (Penalty Awarded),
63', Pizzini F. ↓, Arce T. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Ruiz J. ⚽,
67', Arce T. 🟨,
69', Medran E. 🟨,
77', Ruiz J. ↓, Griffith V. ↑,
77', Carrillo R. ↓, Klimowicz L. ↑,
85', Portocarrero S. ↓, Velez C. ↑,
85', Monserrat N. ↓, Moran J. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 3, Saya R. ⚽, Arce T. (A),
90+2', Arce T. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,

Preview

In recent outings, Leones del Norte has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Emelec is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this matchup, Leones del Norte is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Leones del Norte against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:1 goals (averaging 1:0.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Emelec - the odds 3.35 are the expected chance of winning is 27.42%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.10.26	Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Leones del Norte - Técnico Universitario	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Mushuc Runa - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
03.09.26	Leones del Norte - Orense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LTLTW
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.10.26	Guayaquil City - Emelec	3:2 ✺
19.09.26	Emelec - Libertad Loja	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Deportivo Macará - Emelec	1:0 ✺
07.09.26	Emelec - Manta	1:0 ✺
03.09.26	Libertad Loja - Emelec	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.08.26	Emelec - Leones del Norte	2:1
03.05.26	Leones del Norte - Emelec	2:0
Ecuadorian Copa
08.10.25	Leones del Norte - Emelec	0:1 penalties

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