Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 12

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra (Ibarra)

Referee: Gonzalez G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Leones del Norte		Emelec

	1	X	2
	2.57	2.85	2.75	Watch
	2.37	2.87	2.8
	2.58	2.98	2.72	Watch
	2.69	3.05	3.02
	2.71	3.01	2.76	Watch
	2.5	2.63	2.75
	2.76	2.94	2.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.48)	2.9 ↓ (2.93)	2.79 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones del Norte
35.4%

Draw
31.7%

Emelec
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

31.9%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

30.7%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones del Norte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Leones del Norte - Emelec Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Nazareno L. (G) 32. Aguas A. 4. Arroyo R. 23. Monserrat N. 2. Moran J. 34. Portocarrero S. 6. Griffa E. 5. Coppo T. 8. Velez C. 70. Pazmino D. 40. Anangono J. (C)	12. Ortiz P. (C) 14. Caicedo R. 16. Quintero S. 2. Leguizamon A. 51. Valencia S. 3. Guerrico I. 5. Mina A. 6. Griffith V. 21. Cevallos J. 9. Neris J. 15. Fragozo L.
Substitutes
24. Angulo J. L. (G) 22. Arroyo J. (G) 55. Borja R. 13. Cabeza J. 50. Caicedo M. 27. Caicedo Nestor 11. Caramuto M. 16. De La Cruz M. 17. Mairongo J. 44. Mina K. 99. Solano C. 3. Vargas F.	18. Carabali M. 20. Gonzaga J. 80. Herrera O. 7. Klimowicz L. 8. Napoli G. 10. Pizzini F. 19. Ruiz J. 4. Segura E. 1. Valero M. (G) 24. Viteri A.
Coaches
Mendez E.	Sanchez V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Velez C. 🟨,
22', Griffith V. 🟨,
32', Arroyo R. 🟨,
43', Cevallos J. 🟨,
45+7', 1 - 0, Portocarrero S. ⚽, Aguas A. (A),
45+11', Valencia S. 🟨,
45+11', Pazmino D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Cevallos J. ↓, Pizzini F. ↑,
59', 2 - 0, Griffa E. ⚽,
64', Mina A. ↓, Klimowicz L. ↑,
64', Coppo T. ↓, Borja R. ↑,
64', Portocarrero S. ↓, De La Cruz M. ↑,
73', Pazmino D. ↓, Solano C. ↑,
73', Griffa E. ↓, Cabeza J. ↑,
80', Neris J. ↓, Gonzaga J. ↑,
80', Mina A. ↓, Napoli G. ↑,
81', Aguas A. ↓, Vargas F. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Leones del Norte won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Including home match between the teams, Leones del Norte won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Emelec - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.44%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.04.26	Independiente del Valle - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Leones del Norte - Manta	3:0 ✺
17.04.26	Leones del Norte - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
10.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
05.04.26	Leones del Norte - Delfín	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLLW
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.04.26	Emelec - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
21.04.26	Técnico Universitario - Emelec	0:1 ✺
17.04.26	Emelec - Guayaquil City	1:3 ✺
12.04.26	SD Aucas - Emelec	2:0 ✺
08.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Copa
08.10.25	Leones del Norte - Emelec	0:1 penalties

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