Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 16

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Referee: Cabrera R. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Emelec		Universidad Católica del Ecuador

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.2	2.57	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.37
	2.58	3.1	2.62	Watch
	2.7	3.25	2.78
	2.8	2.86	2.8	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.5
	2.65	3.1	2.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.91)	3.07 ↑ (2.92)	2.62 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
35%

Draw
29.9%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

32%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

31.4%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valero M. (G) 14. Caicedo R. 2. Leguizamon A. (C) 4. Segura E. 3. Guerrico I. 5. Mina A. 16. Quintero S. 8. Napoli G. 19. Ruiz J. 10. Pizzini F. 7. Klimowicz L.	12. Lara J. (G) 29. Anangono G. 33. Canga L. (C) 4. Jhon Chancellor 44. Valencia E. 5. Cacciabue J. 15. Moreno L. 13. Rose E. 28. Diaz M. 32. Alonso M. 18. Palacios B.
Substitutes
17. Ayovi J. 18. Carabali M. 22. Castaneda E. (G) 21. Cevallos J. 15. Fragozo L. 20. Gonzaga J. 80. Herrera O. 27. Leon F. 30. Mina A. 25. Narvaez R. 24. Viteri A.	14. Caicedo R. 20. Chala J. 1. Cueva L. (G) 10. Martinez F. 37. Medina C. 24. Nazareno D. 6. Palacios D. 23. Rodriguez A. 22. Romo R. (G) 19. Sevillano M. 17. Troya R. 26. Yanez S.
Coaches
Nasuti C.	Martinez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Valencia E. 🟨,
43', Canga L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Alonso M. 🟨,
62', Guerrico I. 🟨,
65', Pizzini F. ↓, Fragozo L. ↑,
72', Napoli G. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
72', Rose E. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
82', 1 - 0, Ruiz J. ⚽, Fragozo L. (A),
85', Valencia E. ↓, Palacios D. ↑,
90+1', Klimowicz L. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
90+1', Moreno L. ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
90+1', Palacios B. ↓, Yanez S. ↑,
90+1', Ruiz J. ↓, Herrera O. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Uni Católica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:20. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Emelec won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.2:1.8).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. Catolica	31	14	9	8	52:29	23	51

Last Results with these Odds

Emelec - the odds 2.91 are the expected chance of winning is 32.14%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.05.26	Emelec - Deportivo Macará	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
20.05.26	Daquilema - Emelec	1:0 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.05.26	Manta - Emelec	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Emelec - Libertad Loja	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Leones del Norte - Emelec	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLTTL
- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Copa
28.05.26	El Nacional - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:4 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.05.26	Orense - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:2 ✺
16.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Delfín	2:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Super Cup
13.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.05.26	SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
08.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec	1:1
25.06.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec	1:1
16.02.25	Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:4
26.10.24	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec	2:0
05.05.24	Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1
28.10.23	Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1
20.05.23	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec	3:2

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