Match Info

Serie B - Round 12

Date: 7 November 2025, Friday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Calzavara A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 STARS Israel
Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, Destination Calcio, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Switzerland	Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, Fox
World	Onefootball


	Spezia		Bari

	1	X	2
	1.96	2.95	4.33	Watch
	1.98	3	4.05	Watch
	2.08	3.08	4.66
	1.67	3.81	4.45	Watch
	2.05	3.06	4.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.71)	3.18 ↓ (3.71)	4.38 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
48.6%

Draw
29.8%

Bari
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

25%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

26.7%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Spezia's form might have worsened.

Bari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Spezia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bari than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	21.4%	21.4%

Spezia - Bari Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Bari will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spezia: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Bari (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bari (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mascardi D. (G) 37. Mateju A. 2. Wisniewski P. 6. Fellipe Jack 32. Vignali L. (C) 29. Cassata F. 8. Nagy A. 80. Kouda R. 31. Aurelio G. 20. Di Serio G. 99. Vlahovic V.	31. Cerofolini M. (G) 25. Pucino R. (C) 13. Meroni A. 43. Nikolaou D. 24. Dickmann L. 18. Maggiore G. 29. Verreth M. 93. Dorval M. 16. Antonucci M. 11. Moncini G. 9. Gytkjaer C.
Substitutes
9. Artistico G. 24. Bertoncini A. 11. Beruatto P. 23. Candela A. 36. Candelari P. 15. Cistana A. 55. Hristov P. 21. Insignito A. 77. Lorenzelli E. 16. Loria L. (G) 1. Sarr M. (G) 27. Soleri E.	10. Bellomo N. 27. Braunoder M. 3. Burgio R. 4. Castrovilli G. 99. Cerri L. 15. Kassama S. 76. Mavraj I. 8. Pagano R. 21. Partipilo A. 20. Pereiro G. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 17. Rao E.
Coaches
Donadoni R.	Caserta F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Gytkjaer C. ⚽, Verreth M. (A),
36', 1 - 1, Kouda R. ⚽, Vlahovic V. (A),
36', Kouda R. 🟨,
42', Kouda R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Nikolaou D. 🟨,
63', Gytkjaer C. ↓, Cerri L. ↑,
63', Maggiore G. ↓, Castrovilli G. ↑,
64', Vignali L. ↓, Candela A. ↑,
74', Antonucci M. ↓, Braunoder M. ↑,
74', Dorval M. ↓, Rao E. ↑,
79', Pucino R. 🟨,
80', Di Serio G. ↓, Soleri E. ↑,
80', Vlahovic V. ↓, Artistico G. ↑,
81', Verreth M. ↓, Partipilo A. ↑,
90', Candela A. 🟨,
90+3', Aurelio G. ↓, Beruatto P. ↑,
90+8', Cassata F. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 1.

Spezia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bari is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Spezia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Spezia is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Spezia: Artistico G. (Inactive) Bandinelli F. (Broken Leg) Comotto C. (Injury) Esposito Sa. (Inactive) Onofri M. (Inactive) Zurkowski S. (Injury)

There will not play in Bari: Kassama S. (Inactive) Sibilli G. (Inactive) Vicari F. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Bari: Darboe E. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Spezia won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:2. (average 1.1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
02.11.25	Monza - Spezia	1:0 ✺
29.10.25	Spezia - Padova	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Avellino - Spezia	0:4 ✺
18.10.25	Spezia - Cesena	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Spezia - Palermo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTWLL
- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
02.11.25	Bari - Cesena	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Bari - Mantova	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Reggiana - Bari	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Bari - Padova	2:1 ✺
30.09.25	Virtus Entella - Bari	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
29.12.24	Bari - Spezia	2:0
25.10.24	Spezia - Bari	0:0
03.03.24	Bari - Spezia	1:1
15.12.23	Spezia - Bari	1:0
13.03.18	Bari - Spezia	1:1
30.09.17	Spezia - Bari	1:0
08.04.17	Spezia - Bari	1:0

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