Match Info

Date: 19 February 2021, Friday


	Erzgebirge Aue		Bochum

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.8	1.75	Watch
	4.2	3.9	1.8	Watch
	4.2	3.7	1.8
	4.1	3.75	1.78
	4.4	3.91	1.83
	4.2	3.6	1.8
	4.25	3.92	1.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.24 ↑ (3.79)	3.8 ↑ (3.48)	1.79 ↓ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
22.3%

Draw
24.9%

Bochum
52.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.9%

27.1%

48%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.3%

21%

61.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Bochum has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bochum than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bochum could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11%	6.1%	82.9%

Erzgebirge Aue - Bochum Predictions

Users Predictions: Bochum will win (68 of 82 users predict this - 82.93%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.79% – 91.07%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion to Bundesliga).

Aue has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Bochum has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of promoted (43%), has a chance of win league (17%).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Bochum is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Aue won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 25-28.

Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18-17.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 2 Bundesliga
13.02.21	Heidenheim - Erzgebirge Aue	2:0 ✺
05.02.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Hamburger SV	3:3 ✺
29.01.21	Greuther Fürth - Erzgebirge Aue	3:0 ✺
26.01.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Würzburger Kickers	2:1 ✺
22.01.21	Osnabrück - Erzgebirge Aue	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LTLWW
- VfL Bochum
German 2 Bundesliga
14.02.21	Bochum - Eintracht Braunschweig	2:0 ✺
06.02.21	Osnabrück - Bochum	1:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.02.21	RB Leipzig - Bochum	4:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
31.01.21	Bochum - Karlsruher	1:2 ✺
28.01.21	St. Pauli - Bochum	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
25.10.20	Bochum - Erzgebirge Aue	2:0
17.06.20	Erzgebirge Aue - Bochum	1:2
30.11.19	Bochum - Erzgebirge Aue	2:0
28.04.19	Erzgebirge Aue - Bochum	3:2
24.11.18	Bochum - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1
27.04.18	Bochum - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1
26.11.17	Erzgebirge Aue - Bochum	1:1

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