The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Erzgebirge Aue 17.7%
Draw 21.7%
Hamburger SV 60.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
22.3%
24%
53.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
18%
19.4%
66.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)
Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hamburger SV's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hamburger SV could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
22.5%
7.5%
70%
Erzgebirge Aue - Hamburger SV Predictions
Users Predictions:
40 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 9 - 22.5%). Hamburg will win (votes: 28 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 7.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 55.8% โ 84.2%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Preview
Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga and 7).
Aue has the most likely position - 18 (36.09%), has project points - 30, has currently - 3, has a good chance of relegated (63%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Hamburg has the most likely position - 1 (17.38%), has project points - 57, has currently - 13, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of promoted (36%), has a chance of win league (17%).
Aue is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Hamburg is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
In this match Hamburg is a favorite.
Last 6 head-to-head matches Aue won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-14.
Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-6.
Watch
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