Match Info

Date: 1 October 2021, Friday


	Erzgebirge Aue		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	6	4.33	1.53	Watch
	5	4.2	1.61	Watch
	5.4	4.35	1.54
	5	4.5	1.55
	5.59	4.53	1.58
	5.25	4	1.57
	5.25	4.6	1.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.36 ↑ (4.2)	4.36 ↑ (3.9)	1.56 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
17.7%

Draw
21.7%

Hamburger SV
60.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.3%

24%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18%

19.4%

66.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hamburger SV's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hamburger SV could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.5%	7.5%	70%

Erzgebirge Aue - Hamburger SV Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 9 - 22.5%). Hamburg will win (votes: 28 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 7.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 55.8% – 84.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga and 7).

Aue has the most likely position - 18 (36.09%), has project points - 30, has currently - 3, has a good chance of relegated (63%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Hamburg has the most likely position - 1 (17.38%), has project points - 57, has currently - 13, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of promoted (36%), has a chance of win league (17%).

Aue is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Hamburg is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Hamburg is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Aue won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 2 Bundesliga
24.09.21	Jahn Regensburg - Erzgebirge Aue	3:2 ✺
19.09.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Paderborn	1:4 ✺
12.09.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Hallescher	6:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
28.08.21	Holstein Kiel - Erzgebirge Aue	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLWL
- Hamburger SV
German 2 Bundesliga
26.09.21	Hamburger SV - Nürnberg	2:2 ✺
18.09.21	Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV	0:2 ✺
11.09.21	Hamburger SV - Sandhausen	2:1 ✺
28.08.21	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
22.08.21	Hamburger SV - Darmstadt	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
05.02.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Hamburger SV	3:3
21.10.20	Hamburger SV - Erzgebirge Aue	3:0
29.02.20	Erzgebirge Aue - Hamburger SV	3:0
22.09.19	Hamburger SV - Erzgebirge Aue	4:0
20.04.19	Hamburger SV - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1
10.11.18	Erzgebirge Aue - Hamburger SV	1:3

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