Match Info

Date: 29 January 2021, Friday


	Greuther Fürth		Erzgebirge Aue

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	5.25	Watch
	1.53	4.33	6	Watch
	1.55	4.2	5.5
	1.55	4.2	5.2
	1.59	4.3	5.85
	1.52	4	6
	1.58	4.2	5.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.65)	4.25 ↑ (3.98)	5.63 ↑ (4.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Greuther Fürth
61%

Draw
22.2%

Erzgebirge Aue
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

23.7%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

13.9%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Greuther Fürth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Greuther Fürth than the current prediction. (-27.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Greuther Fürth that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+16%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Erzgebirge Aue could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	13%	37%

Greuther Fürth - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Fürth will win (votes: 23 - 50%). Aue will win (votes: 17 - 37%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fürth: 35.6% – 64.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 4 and 7).

Fürth has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of promoted (26%), has a small chance of win league (8%).

Aue has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Fürth is a favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Fürth won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 20-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Fürth won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Greuther Fürth
German 2 Bundesliga
26.01.21	Osnabrück - Greuther Fürth	0:1 ✺
22.01.21	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Greuther Fürth	3:3 ✺
15.01.21	Greuther Fürth - Paderborn	1:1 ✺
08.01.21	Karlsruher - Greuther Fürth	3:2 ✺
03.01.21	Greuther Fürth - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTTLW
- Erzgebirge Aue
German 2 Bundesliga
26.01.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Würzburger Kickers	2:1 ✺
22.01.21	Osnabrück - Erzgebirge Aue	0:1 ✺
16.01.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:3 ✺
10.01.21	Paderborn - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
03.01.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Eintracht Braunschweig	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
25.09.20	Erzgebirge Aue - Greuther Fürth	1:1
21.12.19	Erzgebirge Aue - Greuther Fürth	3:1
28.07.19	Greuther Fürth - Erzgebirge Aue	0:2
12.05.19	Erzgebirge Aue - Greuther Fürth	1:1
08.12.18	Greuther Fürth - Erzgebirge Aue	0:5
19.03.18	Erzgebirge Aue - Greuther Fürth	2:1
15.10.17	Greuther Fürth - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1

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