Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	St. Pauli		Bochum

	1	X	2
	1.73	4	4.5	Watch
	1.62	4.2	5
	1.72	4.2	4.5	Watch
	1.76	4.12	4.59
	1.72	4.1	4.78	Watch
	1.6	4.2	5	Watch
	1.75	4.32	4.73	Watch
	1.72	4.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.75)	4.17 ↑ (4.04)	4.7 ↑ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
56.5%

Draw
23.1%

Bochum
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

23.7%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

23.4%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Bochum has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bochum than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.8%	20.8%	8.3%

St. Pauli - Bochum Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 16 - 69.6%). Bochum will win (votes: 2 - 8.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 50.8% – 88.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): St. Pauli will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 4. Nemeth D. 5. Wahl H. (C) 44. Van Der Heyden S. 2. Saliakas M. 16. Boukhalfa C. 8. Smith E. 23. Treu P. 29. Guilavogui M. 10. Sinani D. 17. Afolayan O.	1. Horn T. (G) 14. Oermann T. 13. Medic J. 5. Bernardo 15. Passlack F. 24. Pannewig M. 32. Wittek M. (C) 19. Bero M. 6. Sissoko I. 9. Boadu M. 11. Masouras G.
Substitutes
20. Ahlstrand E. 18. Banks S. 25. Dzwigala A. 11. Eggestein J. 24. Metcalfe C. 21. Ritzka L. 1. Voll B. A. (G) 39. Wagner R. 13. Weisshaupt N.	29. Broschinski M. 10. de Wit D. 27. Drewes P. (G) 2. Gamboa C. 21. Holtmann G. 43. Koscierski K. 8. Losilla A. 4. Masovic E. 23. Miyoshi K.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Hecking D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Boadu M. ⚽,
33', Van Der Heyden S. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Afolayan O. ↓, Weisshaupt N. ↑,
57', Sissoko I. ↓, Losilla A. ↑,
64', Sinani D. ↓, Eggestein J. ↑,
64', Saliakas M. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
66', 0 - 2, Boadu M. ⚽, Passlack F. (A),
76', Guilavogui M. ↓, Banks S. ↑,
76', Pannewig M. ↓, de Wit D. ↑,
76', Boadu M. ↓, Broschinski M. ↑,
76', Masouras G. ↓, Miyoshi K. ↑,
84', Medic J. ↓, Koscierski K. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Bochum is Relegated to 2. Bundesliga

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0.

St. Pauli has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bochum's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

St. Pauli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, St. Pauli is considered a favorite.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Burchert S. (Groin Injury) Irvine J. (Foot Injury) Mets K. (Knee Injury) Saad E. (Thigh Injury) Sands J. (Broken Leg) Zoller S. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Bochum: Hofmann P. (Broken rib) Krauss T. (Injury) Ordets I. (Injury) Tolba M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:26. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Bochum - the odds 4.48 are the expected chance of winning is 21.38%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
11.05.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - St. Pauli	2:2 ✺
03.05.25	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	0:1 ✺
27.04.25	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	0:0 ✺
20.04.25	St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 TLTTW
- VfL Bochum
German Bundesliga
10.05.25	Bochum - Mainz	1:4 ✺
02.05.25	Heidenheim - Bochum	0:0 ✺
27.04.25	Bochum - Union Berlin	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Werder Bremen - Bochum	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Bochum - Augsburg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
15.01.25	Bochum - St. Pauli	1:0
German 2 Bundesliga
28.01.21	St. Pauli - Bochum	2:3
21.09.20	Bochum - St. Pauli	2:2
05.06.20	Bochum - St. Pauli	2:0
08.11.19	St. Pauli - Bochum	1:1
12.05.19	St. Pauli - Bochum	0:0
10.12.18	Bochum - St. Pauli	1:3

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