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Current Win Probability
Erzgebirge Aue 25.4%
Draw 26.5%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 48.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
25.7%
28%
46.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
19.7%
21.5%
60.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
Fortuna Düsseldorf has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (-5.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Erzgebirge Aue that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Düsseldorf than the current prediction. (+12.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortuna Düsseldorf could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
21.2%
18.2%
60.6%
Erzgebirge Aue - Fortuna Düsseldorf Predictions
Users Predictions:
33 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 7 - 21.2%). Fortuna will win (votes: 20 - 60.6%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.2%). Confidence interval (95%) for Fortuna: 43.9% – 77.3%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Preview
This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga and 14).
Aue has the most likely position - 18 (22.82%), has project points - 34, has currently - 3, has a chance of relegated (45%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Fortuna has the most likely position - 6 (7.58%), has project points - 48, has currently - 4, has a small chance of relegated (7%), has a small chance of promoted (11%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).
Aue is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Recent matches Fortuna is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
In this match Fortuna is a favorite.
Last 12 head-to-head matches Aue won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 9-25.
Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-8.
Watch
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