Match Info

3. Liga - Round 20

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Ostseestadion (Rostock)

Referee: Kampka R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 1
Germany	DFB Play, Magenta Sport, MDR Fernsehen, NDR Fernsehen, tv.dfb.de
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	Onefootball


	Hansa Rostock		Erzgebirge Aue

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.9	5.25	Watch
	1.52	4.25	5.3	Watch
	1.49	4.8	5.26	Watch
	1.5	4.2	5
	1.58	4.06	5.21	Watch
	1.52	4.5	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.55)	4.29 ↓ (4.38)	5.17 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hansa Rostock
60.7%

Draw
21.5%

Erzgebirge Aue
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

21.2%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

20.8%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hansa Rostock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hansa Rostock than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Hansa Rostock - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hansa Rostock (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Hansa Rostock will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Uphoff B. (G) 19. Mejdr J. 15. Gurleyen A. 17. Carstens F. 33. Bergh V. 5. Schuster M. 6. Dirkner J. 4. Fatkic K. 42. Dietze B. 9. Voglsammer A. 20. Naderi R.	22. Lord L. (G) 23. Barylla A. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. 29. Collins J. 13. Majetschak E. 11. Uhlmann E. 8. Clausen M. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 24. Ehlers J. 15. Bar M.
Substitutes
30. Hagemoser M. (G) 8. Harenbrock C. 11. Holten E. 21. Hummel D. 27. Kinsombi C. 35. Krauss M. 14. Lebeau A. 7. Neidhart N. 23. Pfanne F.	9. Bornschein R. 20. Fabisch J. 1. Mannel M. (G) 39. Schmid M. 37. Seidel P. 30. Seiffert M. 5. Simnica L. 14. Tashchy B. 7. Weinhauer E.
Coaches
Brinkmann D.	Hartel J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', Majetschak E. ↓, Fabisch J. ↑,
20', Fabisch J. 🟨,
37', Uhlmann E. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Dirkner J. ⚽, Bergh V. (A),
45', Dirkner J. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Bar M. ⚽, Clausen M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', Mejdr J. ↓, Neidhart N. ↑,
65', Voglsammer A. ↓, Holten E. ↑,
68', Bar M. ↓, Schmid M. ↑,
68', Gunther-Schmidt J. ↓, Tashchy B. ↑,
81', Dietze B. ↓, Harenbrock C. ↑,
85', Uhlmann E. ↓, Simnica L. ↑,
86', Collins J. ↓, Seiffert M. ↑,
88', Bergh V. 🟨,
88', Dirkner J. ↓, Krauss M. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 1, Naderi R. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hansa Rostock won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Hansa Rostock is the team to beat.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Hansa Rostock won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hansa Rostock won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Hansa Rostock	8	4	3	1	17:15	2	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hansa Rostock
Club Friendly
09.01.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Hansa Rostock	1:0 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
20.12.25	Hansa Rostock - Saarbrücken	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	VfB Stuttgart II - Hansa Rostock	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Hansa Rostock - Alemannia Aachen	2:2 ✺
30.11.25	Jahn Regensburg - Hansa Rostock	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTWTW
- Erzgebirge Aue
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Union Berlin	1:2 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
20.12.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Schweinfurt	4:0 ✺
13.12.25	Duisburg - Erzgebirge Aue	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Ingolstadt	2:2 ✺
28.11.25	Wehen Wiesbaden - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
03.08.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Hansa Rostock	0:0
12.03.25	Hansa Rostock - Erzgebirge Aue	4:1
05.10.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Hansa Rostock	1:2
German 2 Bundesliga
24.04.22	Erzgebirge Aue - Hansa Rostock	2:2
20.11.21	Hansa Rostock - Erzgebirge Aue	1:2
German 3 Bundesliga
20.02.16	Hansa Rostock - Erzgebirge Aue	0:2
05.09.15	Erzgebirge Aue - Hansa Rostock	0:0

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