Match Info

3. Liga - Round 17

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue)

Referee: Schreiner S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport
World	Onefootball


	Erzgebirge Aue		Ingolstadt

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.5	2.35	Watch
	2.58	3.6	2.38
	2.72	3.78	2.42
	2.61	3.78	2.37	Watch
	2.6	3.4	2.3
	2.53	3.45	2.35	Watch
	2.6	3.6	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.51)	3.59 ↓ (3.67)	2.37 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
35.5%

Draw
25.6%

Ingolstadt
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

25.3%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

24.9%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Ingolstadt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Erzgebirge Aue - Ingolstadt Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Ingolstadt will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ingolstadt: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ingolstadt (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Ingolstadt (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ingolstadt (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Lord L. (G) 23. Barylla A. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. 30. Seiffert M. 20. Fabisch J. 13. Majetschak E. 8. Clausen M. 14. Tashchy B. 34. Stefaniak M. (C) 9. Bornschein R.	25. Eisele K. (G) 2. Hoppe M. 32. Lorenz S. 15. Scholz J. 19. Rosenlocher L. 14. Plath M. 22. Costly M. 17. Besuschkow M. 8. Carlsen F. 24. Christensen G. 29. Kugel J.
Substitutes
29. Collins J. 24. Ehlers J. 27. Hetzsch F. 39. Schmid M. 37. Seidel P. 5. Simnica L. 36. Uhlig M. (G) 11. Uhlmann E. 7. Weinhauer E.	9. Borchers M. 11. Christensen F. 30. Drakulic O. 34. Frode L. 47. Klein D. (G) 23. Maljojoki J. 39. Ozturk B. 33. Sekulovic D. 7. Sturm Y.
Coaches
Hartel J.	Wittmann S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Bornschein R. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Carlsen F. ⚽,
33', Kugel J. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', 1 - 1, Stefaniak M. ⚽,
60', Stefaniak M. ↓, Schmid M. ↑,
60', Seiffert M. ↓, Collins J. ↑,
60', Barylla A. ↓, Uhlmann E. ↑,
61', Decker E. ↓, Frode L. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Fabisch J. ⚽, Uhlmann E. (A),
80', Bornschein R. ↓, Ehlers J. ↑,
80', Clausen M. ↓, Weinhauer E. ↑,
84', Besuschkow M. ↓, Drakulic O. ↑,
84', Hoppe M. ↓, Sturm Y. ↑,
87', Collins J. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 2, Scholz J. ⚽,
90+2', Carlsen F. 🟨,
90+4', Costly M. ↓, Maljojoki J. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aue won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Aue may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aue won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:26. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aue won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:11. (average 0.3:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
28.11.25	Wehen Wiesbaden - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
23.11.25	Erzgebirge Aue - VfB Stuttgart II	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Verl - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Jahn Regensburg	4:3 ✺
26.10.25	Hoffenheim II - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LTTWT
- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 3 Bundesliga
29.11.25	Ingolstadt - Hoffenheim II	3:2 ✺
22.11.25	Osnabrück - Ingolstadt	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Ingolstadt - Rot-Weiß Essen	1:2 ✺
31.10.25	Viktoria Köln - Ingolstadt	3:1 ✺
25.10.25	Ingolstadt - Saarbrücken	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
04.05.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Ingolstadt	1:0
07.12.24	Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0
19.12.23	Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1
06.08.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Ingolstadt	1:0
20.05.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Ingolstadt	0:3
16.01.23	Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	1:2
German 2 Bundesliga
01.04.22	Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	3:2

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