Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 13

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril)

Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Estoril Praia		Moreirense

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.3	Watch
	2.22	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.27	3.28	3.48
	2.17	3.27	3.48	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.25	Watch
	2.25	3.47	3.37	Watch
	2.16	3.14	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.81)	3.28 ↓ (3.58)	3.37 ↓ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estoril Praia
43.1%

Draw
28.8%

Moreirense
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

26.4%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

26.1%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Estoril Praia's form might have worsened.

Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Moreirense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estoril Praia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Moreirense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Estoril Praia - Moreirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Estoril will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estoril: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Moreirense (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Robles J. (G) 5. Tsoungui A. 25. Bacher F. 44. Boma K. 2. Sanchez R. 45. Patrick de Paula 6. Jandro 24. Amaral P. 12. Carvalho J. (C) 14. Begraoui Y. 19. Lacximicant A.	13. Ferreira A. (G) 76. Pinto D. 3. Michel 66. Batista G. 27. Kiko 11. Alanzinho 8. Stjepanovic M. 15. Sousa V. 2. Travassos 95. Guilherme Schettine (C) 78. Landerson
Substitutes
90. Brito T. 22. Carvalho P. 11. Edwards K. 4. Ferro 9. Marques A. 55. Parente T. 70. Peixinho 21. Pizzi 16. Turk M. (G)	25. Assis A. 20. Bernardo 22. Caio (G) 10. Kiko Bondoso 44. Marcelo 17. Martinez A. 21. Rodri 9. Semedo L. 7. Teguia C.
Coaches
Cathro I.	Costa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Travassos ⚽, Guilherme Schettine (A),
16', Landerson 🟨,
19', 1 - 1, Patrick de Paula ⚽, Sanchez R. (A),
29', Lacximicant A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
54', 2 - 1, Sanchez R. ⚽, Jandro (A),
58', 3 - 1, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
59', Kiko ↓, Kiko Bondoso ↑,
59', Guilherme Schettine ↓, Semedo L. ↑,
60', Stjepanovic M. ↓, Assis A. ↑,
62', 3 - 2, Assis A. ⚽, Pinto D. (A),
64', Patrick de Paula ↓, Pizzi ↑,
64', Tsoungui A. ↓, Ferro ↑,
66', Alanzinho 🟨,
69', Sanchez R. 🟨,
73', Alanzinho ↓, Bernardo ↑,
73', Amaral P. ↓, Parente T. ↑,
74', Sanchez R. ↓, Carvalho P. ↑,
75', Assis A. 🟨,
79', Sousa V. ↓, Rodri ↑,
80', Jandro ↓, Marques A. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 3, Semedo L. ⚽, Rodri (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 1.

Estoril has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Moreirense is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Moreirense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Estoril will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Estoril: Holsgrove J. (Yellow Cards) Xeka (Injury)

There will not play in Moreirense: Maracas (Red Card) Yan Maranhao (Inactive)

There are questionable in Estoril: Israelov O. (Inactive)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:19. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
30.11.25	Porto - Estoril Praia	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.11.25	Estoril Praia - Arouca	4:3 ✺
01.11.25	Rio Ave - Estoril Praia	0:4 ✺
26.10.25	Estoril Praia - Nacional	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LLWWT
- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
29.11.25	Moreirense - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
09.11.25	Braga - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Arouca - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
27.10.25	Moreirense - Porto	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Fafe - Moreirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
11.05.25	Moreirense - Estoril Praia	2:2
28.12.24	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	2:2
18.05.24	Moreirense - Estoril Praia	2:1
13.01.24	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	1:3
07.05.22	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	1:0
28.12.21	Moreirense - Estoril Praia	1:0
12.02.18	Moreirense - Estoril Praia	1:2

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