Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 3

Date: 10 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
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France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN Sports MAX 4
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
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Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Estrela da Amadora		Braga

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.90	1.56	Watch
	5.75	3.90	1.57
	5.60	3.95	1.58	Watch
	6.29	4.08	1.60
	5.78	3.93	1.6	Watch
	6.15	3.90	1.58
	5.89	3.99	1.64	Watch
	5.60	3.90	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.85 ↑ (3.96)	3.94 ↑ (3.48)	1.59 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora
16.2%

Draw
24.1%

Braga
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

27.2%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

27.8%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Estrela da Amadora's form might have worsened.

Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Braga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estrela da Amadora, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Braga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.7%	4.3%	87%

Estrela da Amadora - Braga Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Braga (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Estrela (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (2.00) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.91) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Braga will win (20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Braga will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Estrela (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Braga (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Leo Linck (G) 21. Scholze M. 30. Luan Patrick 5. Lekovic S. (C) 55. Rafa Soares 39. Doue G. 78. Serra S. 99. Marcus A. 14. Zvonarek L. 10. Stoica I. 37. Antonetti L.	31. Bernardo (G) 14. Lagerbielke G. 6. Vitor Carvalho 22. Sergio Barcia 2. Gomez V. 34. Tiknaz D. E. 8. Moutinho J. (C) 77. Martinez G. 20. Dorgeles M. 10. Victor P. 9. Navarro F.
Substitutes
80. Alisson Souza 4. Bernardo Schappo 17. Encada J. 22. Grilo D. (G) 6. Jansson K. 19. Joan Jordan 3. Mincarelli L. 49. Mitongo R. 71. Pedro Vanga E. 51. Pinto D. (G) 8. Robinho 93. Souza B.	26. Arrey-Mbi B. 44. Bajrami A. 37. Barisic A. 78. Carvalho J. (G) 11. Gabriel Silva 16. Marques T. 17. Milosevic J. 50. Rodrigues D. 12. Sa T. (G) 7. Travassos 19. Wind J.
Coaches
Miguel P.	Vicens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Martinez G. ⚽, Victor P. (A),
27', Lekovic S. 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Stoica I. ⚽, Doue G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 2 - 1, Stoica I. ⚽, Marcus A. (A),
61', Navarro F. ↓, Marques T. ↑,
61', Martinez G. ↓, Travassos ↑,
61', Dorgeles M. ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,
75', Stoica I. ↓, Souza B. ↑,
75', Serra S. ↓, Joan Jordan ↑,
76', Tiknaz D. E. ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
76', Victor P. ↓, Wind J. ↑,
77', Moutinho J. 🟨,
86', Luan Patrick 🟨,
87', Antonetti L. ↓, Mitongo R. ↑,
90', Zvonarek L. ↓, Jansson K. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 0.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Braga is the team to beat.

There will not play in Estrela: Arevalo J. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Braga: Gorby (Inactive) Horta R. (Inactive) Huseinbasic D. (Inactive) Niakate S. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Estrela: Jansson K. (Inactive) Pedro Vanga E. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:14. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1.7:2.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Braga	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11
9	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14:14	0	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
05.09.26	Estrela da Amadora - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
30.08.26	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Alverca - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
08.08.26	Estrela da Amadora - Sporting Lisbon	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Estrela da Amadora - Al-Nassr Riyadh	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.7 TWTTW
- SC Braga
Liga Portugal
05.09.26	Alverca - Braga	1:2 ✺
31.08.26	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Austria Wien - Braga	0:0 ✺
20.08.26	Braga - Austria Wien	2:0 ✺
13.08.26	Dinamo Minsk - Braga	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
16.05.26	Braga - Estrela da Amadora	2:2
03.01.26	Estrela da Amadora - Braga	3:3
19.01.25	Estrela da Amadora - Braga	0:1
11.08.24	Braga - Estrela da Amadora	1:1
02.03.24	Braga - Estrela da Amadora	3:0
28.09.23	Estrela da Amadora - Braga	2:4

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