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Braga vs Estrela da Amadora Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, May 16, 2026)

Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 34

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga (Braga)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
World	Onefootball


	Braga		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.9	4.5	Watch
	1.65	3.95	4.7	Watch
	1.71	4.11	4.86
	1.71	4.15	4.38	Watch
	1.67	3.8	4.6	Watch
	1.7	4.13	4.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.66)	4.01 ↓ (4.3)	4.67 ↑ (4.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Braga
56.3%

Draw
23.5%

Estrela da Amadora
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

22%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

20.7%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Braga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Braga will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Estrela will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Braga: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hornicek L. (G) 14. Lagerbielke G. 15. Oliveira P. 17. Gabriel Moscardo 2. Gomez V. 90. Luisinho 8. Moutinho J. 77. Martinez G. 21. Horta R. (C) 18. Victor P. 39. Navarro F.	40. Ribeiro R. (C) 30. Luan Patrick 4. Lekovic S. 83. Otavio 17. Encada J. 19. Moreira P. 39. Doue G. 24. Langa B. 99. Marcus A. 20. van Hooijdonk S. 10. Stoica I.
Substitutes
78. Carvalho J. (G) 41. da Rocha Y. 9. El Ouazzani A. 92. Gil A. 29. Gorby 5. Lelo L. 53. Noro J. 96. Sousa A. 80. Vasconcelos	7. Antonetti L. 14. Bernardo Schappo 6. Jansson K. 11. Jovane 18. Meireles J. 28. Moustier T. 1. Pinto D. (G) 8. Robinho 21. Scholze M.
Coaches
Vicens C.	Bacci C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Lekovic S. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Martinez G. ⚽,
37', Moutinho J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Martinez G. ↓, Lelo L. ↑,
55', Ribeiro R. 🟨,
61', Luan Patrick 🟨,
68', Horta R. ↓, Gorby ↑,
68', Doue G. ↓, Antonetti L. ↑,
68', van Hooijdonk S. ↓, Robinho ↑,
68', Stoica I. ↓, Jovane ↑,
78', Moreira P. ↓, Jansson K. ↑,
80', Hornicek L. ↓, Carvalho J. ↑,
80', Luisinho ↓, Gil A. ↑,
85', Oliveira P. ↓, Noro J. ↑,
87', Marcus A. 🟨,
87', Lekovic S. 🟨,
90', 2 - 1, Victor P. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Marcus A. ↓, Meireles J. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 2, Lekovic S. ⚽, Jovane (A),
90+7', Lekovic S. 🟨,

Preview

Braga is Qualified for Conference League (Qualification )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braga won 3.

Braga has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Estrela is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Braga is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Braga: Arrey-Mbi B. (Injury) Barisic A. (Muscle Injury) Grillitsch F. (Injury) Niakate S. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Rodrigues D. (Ankle Injury) Vitor Carvalho (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Estrela: Rodrigo Pinho (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Braga: Horta R. (Injury) Lelo L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Estrela: Drame I. (Injury) Gbomadu M. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Braga won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 2.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Braga won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

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Last Results with these Odds

Braga - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 57.01%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Braga
Liga Portugal
11.05.26	Benfica - Braga	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.05.26	Freiburg - Braga	3:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
03.05.26	Braga - Estoril Praia	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.04.26	Braga - Freiburg	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.04.26	Santa Clara - Braga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TLTWL
- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
11.05.26	Estrela da Amadora - Famalicão	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	3:2 ✺
26.04.26	Estrela da Amadora - Porto	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Estrela da Amadora - Sporting Lisbon	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
03.01.26	Estrela da Amadora - Braga	3:3
19.01.25	Estrela da Amadora - Braga	0:1
11.08.24	Braga - Estrela da Amadora	1:1
02.03.24	Braga - Estrela da Amadora	3:0
28.09.23	Estrela da Amadora - Braga	2:4

Braga - Estrela da Amadora: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide