Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 32

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Torres M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5


	Nacional		AVS

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.47	4.5	5.75
	1.46	4.45	6.4	Watch
	1.5	4.77	6.5
	1.51	4.49	5.95	Watch
	1.5	4.2	5.5	Watch
	1.53	4.63	6.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.61)	4.48 ↑ (4.31)	6.12 ↑ (5.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
63.5%

Draw
21.1%

AVS
15.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

22.5%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

22.1%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Nacional - AVS Predictions

Users Predictions: Nacional will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaique Pereira (G) 16. Nunez A. 34. Leo Santos 38. Ze Vitor 5. Jose Gomes 15. Labidi C. 22. Soares F. 10. Daniel Junior 27. Gabriel Veron 9. Ramirez J. (C) 11. Paulinho Boia	1. Adriel (G) 97. Mateus Pivo 42. Devenish C. (C) 3. Paulo Vitor 12. Rivas D. 19. Galletto T. 70. Roni 8. Pedro Lima 11. Akinsola T. 20. Duarte D. 21. Neiva G.
Substitutes
2. Aurelio J. 33. Goncalves C. 19. Joao L. 28. Liziero 6. Matheus Dias 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 99. Pablo Ruan 26. Silva J. 7. Witi	27. Algobia A. 5. Molina G. 18. Nene 14. Perea O. 26. Ponck 33. Santos A. 93. Simao (G) 7. Tomane 88. Trigueira (G)
Coaches
Margarido T.	Henriques J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Soares F. ⚽,
22', 1 - 1, Pedro Lima ⚽, Akinsola T. (A),
41', Gabriel Veron 🟨,
45', Paulo Vitor 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gabriel Veron ↓, Liziero ↑,
55', Labidi C. 🟨,
58', Ze Vitor 🟨,
63', 1 - 2, Neiva G. ⚽, Duarte D. (A),
64', Galletto T. ↓, Ponck ↑,
71', Daniel Junior ↓, Joao L. ↑,
71', Labidi C. ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
72', Neiva G. ↓, Tomane ↑,
88', Jose Gomes ↓, Witi ↑,
88', Nunez A. ↓, Aurelio J. ↑,
88', Akinsola T. ↓, Molina G. ↑,
89', Adriel 🟨,
90+3', Ze Vitor 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

AVS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2

In recent matches, Nacional has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

AVS has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

AVS may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nacional is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I. (Injury) Ulisses (Broken calfbone)

There will not play in AVS: Baroan A. (Injury) Mendonca G. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Nacional: Baeza M. (Injury) Lucas Franca (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in AVS: Duarte D. (Injury) Kiki (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7:15	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
25.04.26	Tondela - Nacional	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Nacional - Alverca	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Benfica - Nacional	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Famalicão - Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWLWL
- AVS Futebol SAD
Liga Portugal
26.04.26	AVS - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
17.04.26	Rio Ave - AVS	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	AVS - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
03.04.26	Gil Vicente - AVS	3:0 ✺
21.03.26	Tondela - AVS	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.3 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
21.12.25	AVS - Nacional	2:2
19.01.25	Nacional - AVS	3:1
10.08.24	AVS - Nacional	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
06.04.24	Nacional - AVS	2:1
19.11.23	AVS - Nacional	0:1

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