Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 33

Date: 11 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Vizela (Caldas de Vizela)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3


	Vizela		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.6	2	Watch
	3.3	3.6	2
	3.4	3.6	2.05	Watch
	3.34	3.5	2.12
	3.6	3.73	2.05
	3.4	3.6	2	Watch
	3.45	3.64	2.06	Watch
	3.45	3.65	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3.08)	3.62 ↑ (3.33)	2.04 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vizela
27.6%

Draw
26.1%

Estrela da Amadora
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

28.4%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

30.3%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vizela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estrela da Amadora's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	18.2%	54.5%

Vizela - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Vizela will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Estrela will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estrela: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ruberto F. (G) 82. Costa Silva T. 4. Jota Goncalves 5. Anderson Jesus 19. Lebedenko O. 90. Nascimento D. 20. Samu (C) 75. Lokilo J. 34. Ortiz P. 29. Soro A. 17. Lacava M.	30. Bruno (G) 4. Gaspar K. 5. Mendes P. (C) 70. Mansur 27. Hevertton S. 21. Sa P. 26. Bucca L. 28. Lima R. 10. Andre Luiz 20. Rodrigo Pinho 8. Leo Jaba
Substitutes
11. Ba-Sy A. 28. Bruno Costa 97. Buntic F. (G) 22. Busnic A. 25. Escoval R. 6. Matheus Pereira 8. Mendez A. 2. Oliveira H. 14. Saint-Louis D.	1. Antonio Filipe (G) 71. Goncalves da Silva L. R. 12. Jean Felipe 29. Kikas 31. Nanu 7. Ndo R. 80. Oakley-Boothe T. 9. Tavares R. 75. Varela N.
Coaches
de la Barrera R.	Vieira S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Samu ⚽,
9', Rodrigo Pinho 🟨,
14', Anderson Jesus 🟨,
31', Hevertton S. ↓, Jean Felipe ↑,
38', Lima R. ↓, Kikas ↑,
38', Mendes P. ↓, Varela N. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Rodrigo Pinho ↓, Ndo R. ↑,
54', 2 - 0, Soro A. ⚽,
59', Lacava M. ↓, Matheus Pereira ↑,
59', Sa P. ↓, Oakley-Boothe T. ↑,
69', 3 - 0, Matheus Pereira ⚽,
71', Ndo R. 🟨,
75', Ruberto F. 🟨,
76', Lokilo J. ↓, Oliveira H. ↑,
84', 4 - 0, Oliveira H. ⚽,
86', Soro A. ↓, Ba-Sy A. ↑,
86', Samu ↓, Busnic A. ↑,
90+2', Ortiz P. 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 15).

Vizela is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2

Vizela has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Estrela is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Vizela could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Estrela will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Vizela won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Vizela won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vizela
Liga Portugal
03.05.24	Moreirense - Vizela	1:0 ✺
27.04.24	Vizela - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
20.04.24	Braga - Vizela	2:1 ✺
15.04.24	Vizela - Chaves	0:1 ✺
06.04.24	Famalicão - Vizela	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL
- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
05.05.24	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
29.04.24	Estrela da Amadora - Farense	0:3 ✺
20.04.24	Boavista - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
14.04.24	Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
07.04.24	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
06.01.24	Estrela da Amadora - Vizela	1:1
Taça de Portugal
24.11.23	Vizela - Estrela da Amadora	2:1 ET
20.11.21	Vizela - Estrela da Amadora	2:0
Portuguese League Cup
24.07.21	Estrela da Amadora - Vizela	2:1

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