Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 13

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV4
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Estrela da Amadora		Arouca

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.3	4.1	Watch
	1.92	3.45	3.7	Watch
	1.97	3.56	4.13
	1.88	3.5	4.27	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.9	Watch
	1.98	3.43	4.26	Watch
	1.94	3.33	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.49)	3.4 ↑ (3.35)	4.05 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora
48.9%

Draw
27.8%

Arouca
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

28.2%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

29.4%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estrela da Amadora's performance.

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arouca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estrela da Amadora that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arouca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Estrela da Amadora - Arouca Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 14 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estrela: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Estrela (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Estrela (1.42) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Estrela (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Ribeiro R. (G) 30. Luan Patrick 83. Otavio 14. Bernardo Schappo 10. Stoica I. 6. Ngom O. 19. Moreira P. 55. Cabral S. 99. Marcus A. 98. Kikas (C) 11. Jovane	58. Mantl N. (G) 78. Alex Pinto 66. Fayed O. 5. Popovic B. (C) 44. Dante A. 21. Fukui T. 22. van Ee E. 19. Trezza A. 11. Puche 7. Djouahra N. 23. Nandin D.
Substitutes
7. Antonetti L. 79. Chernev A. 17. Encada J. 89. Gastao J. 22. Grilo D. (G) 18. Meireles J. 8. Robinho 9. Rodrigo Pinho 63. Sola A.	17. Barbero I. 10. Gozalbez P. 14. Lee H. 24. Mansilla B. 89. Pedro Santos 4. Rocha M. 8. Simao D. 16. Sola A. 1. Valido J. (G)
Coaches
Silva L.	Seabra V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
28', Alex Pinto 🟥,
29', 1 - 0, Kikas ⚽, Stoica I. (A),
34', 2 - 0, Marcus A. ⚽, Stoica I. (A),
45', Ngom O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Djouahra N. 🟨,
51', van Ee E. 🟨,
59', 2 - 1, Fukui T. ⚽,
62', van Ee E. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
68', Fukui T. 🟥,
68', Jovane ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
73', Ngom O. ↓, Encada J. ↑,
73', Otavio ↓, Robinho ↑,
73', Trezza A. ↓, Lee H. ↑,
82', Stoica I. ↓, Meireles J. ↑,
82', Kikas ↓, Antonetti L. ↑,
82', Nandin D. ↓, Barbero I. ↑,
85', Pedro Santos 🟨,
90', 3 - 1, Rodrigo Pinho ⚽, Meireles J. (A),
90+7', Lee H. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Recent performances by Estrela have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arouca has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Arouca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Estrela will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Estrela: Encada J. (Injury) Ni (Inactive)

There will not play in Arouca: Flores M. (Knee Injury) Fontan J. (Red Card) Tiago Esgaio (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Arouca: Rocha M. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1.5:2.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Estrela da Amadora - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.94%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Arouca - the odds 2.79 are the expected chance of winning is 33.86%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
30.11.25	Sporting Lisbon - Estrela da Amadora	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
19.11.25	Valladolid - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Casa Pia - Estrela da Amadora	3:5 ✺
25.10.25	Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LTTWL
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
01.12.25	Arouca - Braga	0:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Fafe - Arouca	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.11.25	Estoril Praia - Arouca	4:3 ✺
02.11.25	Arouca - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Benfica - Arouca	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
19.04.25	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	1:0
09.12.24	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	2:1
05.05.24	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	0:0
28.12.23	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	1:4

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