Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 18 July 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi (La Plata)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4


	Estudiantes La Plata		Barcelona Guayaquil

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	8.5	Watch
	1.44	4.2	7.25
	1.42	4.35	7.5
	1.42	4.46	8.15
	1.4	3.9	7.5
	1.44	4.4	7.2	Watch
	1.41	4.4	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.5)	4.39 ↑ (3.9)	7.64 ↑ (6.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estudiantes La Plata
66.4%

Draw
21.4%

Barcelona Guayaquil
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

23.6%

15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

23.3%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estudiantes La Plata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estudiantes La Plata's performance.

Barcelona Guayaquil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes La Plata than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

Estudiantes La Plata - Barcelona Guayaquil Predictions

Users Predictions: Estudiantes La Plata will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Andujar M. (G) 30. Rodriguez J. 26. Lollo L. 4. Nunez S. 29. Godoy L. (C) 10. Rollheiser B. 5. Ascacibar S. 15. Zapiola F. 13. Benedetti G. 16. Mendez M. 9. Carrillo G.	1. Burrai J. (C) 16. Perlaza P. 29. Quinonez J. 3. Sosa L. 34. Portocarrero S. 22. Souza de Almeida L. 20. Pinatares B. 17. Gaibor F. 11. Martinez F. 14. Fydriszewski F. 13. Corozo J.
Substitutes
17. Boselli M. 18. Guasone J. 14. Mancuso E. 3. Mas E. 49. Moreno M. 6. Munoz E. 22. Palavecino N. 19. Pellegrino M. 12. Sappa D. (G) 7. Sosa J. 11. Veron D. 8. Zuqui F.	32. Bauman J. 19. Caicedo B. 10. Diaz D. 12. Mendoza V. (G) 15. Mina J. 6. Moran J. 7. Ortiz C. 18. Preciado A. 21. Rendon G. 9. Rodriguez A. 4. Rodriguez C. 31. Velasco P.
Coaches
Dominguez E.	Bustos F.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.

Estudiantes is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Barcelona Guayaquil is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Estudiantes could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Estudiantes is certain favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Estudiantes won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Estudiantes won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estudiantes La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.07.23	River Plate - Estudiantes La Plata	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.07.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
08.07.23	Estudiantes La Plata - Racing	0:0 ✺
05.07.23	Rosario Central - Estudiantes La Plata	0:0 ✺
01.07.23	Estudiantes La Plata - Central Córdoba	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTTT
- Barcelona Guayaquil
Copa Sudamericana
11.07.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.06.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - Cerro Porteño	2:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.06.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:2 ✺
11.06.23	Guayaquil City - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.06.23	Palmeiras - Barcelona Guayaquil	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
11.07.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1
Copa Libertadores
18.05.17	Barcelona Guayaquil - Estudiantes La Plata	0:3
11.04.17	Estudiantes La Plata - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:2
21.04.15	Barcelona Guayaquil - Estudiantes La Plata	0:2
25.02.15	Estudiantes La Plata - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:0

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