Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 30

Date: 16 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Caseros (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Vinas N. (Arg)


	Estudiantes de Caseros		Independiente Rivadavia

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.4	3	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.44	3.08	3.22
	2.25	2.9	3.2
	2.35	3.14	3.2	Watch
	2.27	3.15	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.79)	3.13 ↓ (3.22)	3.14 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estudiantes de Caseros
40.3%

Draw
29.9%

Independiente Rivadavia
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

28.2%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

28.1%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estudiantes de Caseros has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estudiantes de Caseros's performance.

Independiente Rivadavia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente Rivadavia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes de Caseros than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estudiantes de Caseros that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente Rivadavia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	70%	0%

Estudiantes de Caseros - Independiente Rivadavia Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. CA Estudiantes will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Amade L. (G) 4. Lopez D. 2. Lorenzon F. 6. Ferreyra M. 3. Lusnig L. 8. Brinone S. 5. Lugo M. 11. Fernandez N. 10. Blanco T. 7. Parisi L. J. 9. Bolzicco T.	1. Gagliardo M. (G) 4. Abecasis L. 2. Petrasso F. 6. Flores S. 3. Elordi J. M. 8. Ham E. 5. Romero F. 7. Gonzalez M. 10. Reali M. 11. Sanchez B. 9. Ramis V.
Substitutes
13. Bottino G. 20. Fagundez F. 14. Felissia L. 17. Gaitan T. 19. Garnerone M. 12. Vega M. (G) 18. Vera I.	19. Aguirre J. 17. Ascacibar J. 14. Dionisio A. 12. Masuero F. (G) 13. Moya S. 16. Ortale M. 18. Tonetto D. 20. Valdez I. 15. Varela C.
Coaches
Otta W.	Berti A.

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Recent matches CA Estudiantes is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Independiente Rivadavia is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches CA Estudiantes won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Estudiantes de Caseros
Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.09.23	Deportivo Maipú - Estudiantes de Caseros	2:0 ✺
02.09.23	Estudiantes de Caseros - Villa Dálmine	1:0 ✺
26.08.23	Deportivo Madryn - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:1 ✺
19.08.23	Estudiantes de Caseros - Atlético de Rafaela	1:1 ✺
07.08.23	Aldosivi - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWTTT
- Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.09.23	Independiente Rivadavia - Brown de Adrogué	0:2 ✺
02.09.23	Quilmes - Independiente Rivadavia	0:1 ✺
26.08.23	Independiente Rivadavia - Gimnasia Jujuy	2:1 ✺
19.08.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Independiente Rivadavia	1:1 ✺
06.08.23	Independiente Rivadavia - Deportivo Riestra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.05.23	Independiente Rivadavia - Estudiantes de Caseros	2:1
27.05.22	Independiente Rivadavia - Estudiantes de Caseros	2:0
06.10.19	Independiente Rivadavia - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:2

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