Match Info

Date: 4 September 2022, Sunday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano de Mérida (Mérida)


	Estudiantes de Mérida		Aragua

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.4
	1.95	2.95	3.65
	2.06	3.05	3.4
	2.07	2.85	3.6
	2.1	2.88	3.6
	2.09	3	3.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (2.03)	2.96 ↑ (2.84)	3.56 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estudiantes de Mérida
44%

Draw
30.6%

Aragua
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

30.6%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

25.7%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estudiantes de Mérida has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Aragua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estudiantes de Mérida than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estudiantes de Mérida, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aragua than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.1%	73.7%	5.3%

Estudiantes de Mérida - Aragua Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Estudiantes Mérida will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). Aragua will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 73.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Copa Sudamericana ~ Play Offs) and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Estudiantes de Mérida won 2.

Recent matches Estudiantes de Mérida is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Aragua is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Aragua could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Estudiantes de Mérida will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Estudiantes de Mérida won 7 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 24-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Estudiantes de Mérida won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estudiantes de Mérida
Venezuelan Primera Division
26.08.22	Deportivo Lara - Estudiantes de Mérida	2:2 ✺
21.08.22	Estudiantes de Mérida - Deportivo La Guaira	2:1 ✺
12.08.22	Metropolitanos - Estudiantes de Mérida	2:0 ✺
07.08.22	Estudiantes de Mérida - Portuguesa Acarígua	1:1 ✺
28.07.22	Hermanos Colmenares - Estudiantes de Mérida	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TWLTT
- Aragua FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
28.08.22	Aragua - Mineros de Guayana	3:3 ✺
18.08.22	Zulia - Aragua	0:0 ✺
11.08.22	Aragua - Zamora	0:1 ✺
04.08.22	Carabobo - Aragua	5:1 ✺
31.07.22	Aragua - Deportivo La Guaira	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
18.03.22	Aragua - Estudiantes de Mérida	0:1
18.08.19	Estudiantes de Mérida - Aragua	0:2
02.06.19	Estudiantes de Mérida - Aragua	1:1
26.05.19	Aragua - Estudiantes de Mérida	1:2
23.02.19	Aragua - Estudiantes de Mérida	0:0
04.08.18	Aragua - Estudiantes de Mérida	1:3
11.02.18	Estudiantes de Mérida - Aragua	1:1

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