Match Info

Premier League - Round 27

Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday


	Ethiopian Medhin		Bahir Dar Kenema

	1	X	2
	2.82	2.52	2.82
	3.22	2.64	3.14
	3.07	2.32	3.03	Watch
	2.8	2.4	2.8
	2.95	2.36	2.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.53)	2.45 ↓ (2.81)	2.93 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 0.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ethiopian Medhin
31%

Draw
37.6%

Bahir Dar Kenema
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

32.7%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

32.8%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ethiopian Medhin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ethiopian Medhin's form might have worsened.

Bahir Dar Kenema has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ethiopian Medhin than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ethiopian Medhin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahir Dar Kenema than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Ethiopian Medhin - Bahir Dar Kenema Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Erbo A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+5', 1 - 1, Abas A. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ethiopian Medhin won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ethiopian Medhin won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ethiopian Medhin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 2:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ethiopian Insurance	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Bahir Dar Kenema	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Ethiopian Medhin - the odds 2.53 are the expected chance of winning is 36.37%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Premier League
09.04.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Ethiopian Medhin	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Ethiopian Medhin - Ethiopia Bunna	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Arba Minch - Ethiopian Medhin	0:2 ✺
09.03.26	Ethiopian Medhin - Hadiya Hossana	1:1 ✺
03.03.26	Sheger Ketema - Ethiopian Medhin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLWTT
- Bahir Dar Kenema
Ethiopian Premier League
10.04.26	Bahir Dar Kenema - Adama City	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Ethio Electric - Bahir Dar Kenema	0:0 ✺
13.03.26	Saint George - Bahir Dar Kenema	0:2 ✺
09.03.26	Bahir Dar Kenema - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:0 ✺
04.03.26	Ethiopia Bunna - Bahir Dar Kenema	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
30.11.25	Bahir Dar Kenema - Ethiopian Medhin	1:0
09.05.25	Ethiopian Medhin - Bahir Dar Kenema	1:2
20.01.25	Bahir Dar Kenema - Ethiopian Medhin	0:1
29.02.24	Bahir Dar Kenema - Ethiopian Medhin	0:0
08.10.23	Ethiopian Medhin - Bahir Dar Kenema	3:2
28.04.23	Bahir Dar Kenema - Ethiopian Medhin	2:2
04.11.22	Ethiopian Medhin - Bahir Dar Kenema	2:3

Ethiopian Medhin - Bahir Dar Kenema: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide