Match Info

Premier League - Round 17

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Hill Dickinson Stadium (Liverpool)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
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Vietnam	K+ Sport 1, K+, TV 360
World	Sport 24


	Everton		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	6.25	4	1.55
	6	3.8	1.6
	6.3	4.1	1.58
	6.5	3.97	1.58
	6.17	4.14	1.59	Watch
	5.75	3.9	1.57
	5.79	4.12	1.67	Watch
	6.33	4	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.14 ↑ (4.79)	4 ↑ (3.74)	1.59 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Everton
15.6%

Draw
23.9%

Arsenal
60.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.9%

25.4%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.1%

26.5%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Everton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arsenal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Everton than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.1%	12.1%	75.8%

Everton - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: 66 users predict this event. Everton will win (votes: 8 - 12.1%). Arsenal will win (votes: 50 - 75.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 12.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 65.5% – 86.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25, 1st Half - Arsenal (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Arsenal (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Everton (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (26 of 31 users predict this - 83.87%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 34 Selected Experts predict this event. Everton (votes: 2 - 5.9%). Arsenal (votes: 28 - 82.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 11.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pickford J. (G) 15. O'Brien J. 6. Tarkowski J. (C) 5. Keane M. 16. Mykolenko V. 37. Garner J. 42. Iroegbunam T. 7. McNeil D. 24. Alcaraz C. 18. Grealish J. 11. Barry T.	1. Raya D. (G) 12. Timber J. 2. Saliba W. 5. Hincapie P. 33. Calafiori R. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 36. Zubimendi M. 41. Rice D. 7. Saka B. 14. Gyökeres V. 19. Trossard L.
Substitutes
39. Aznou A. 9. Beto 73. Campbell E. 20. Dibling T. 31. King T. (G) 2. Patterson N. 34. Rohl M. 12. Travers M. (G) 64. Welch R.	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 10. Eze E. 9. Gabriel Jesus 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 20. Madueke N. 11. Martinelli G. 23. Merino M. 16. Norgaard C. 22. Nwaneri E.
Coaches
Moyes D.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Mykolenko V. 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Gyökeres V. (Penalty Awarded),
39', Tarkowski J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Gyökeres V. 🟨,
65', Gyökeres V. ↓, Gabriel Jesus ↑,
66', Barry T. ↓, Beto ↑,
75', McNeil D. ↓, Dibling T. ↑,
76', Alcaraz C. ↓, Rohl M. ↑,
80', Trossard L. ↓, Martinelli G. ↑,
88', Odegaard M. ↓, Merino M. ↑,
89', Martinelli G. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Everton won 0.

Everton has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arsenal is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Everton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Arsenal is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Everton: Branthwaite J. (Hamstring Injury) Coleman S. (Hamstring Injury) Gueye I. (International duty) Ndiaye I. (International duty) Rohl M. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Arsenal: Dowman M. (Ankle Injury) Gabriel (Muscle Injury) Havertz K. (Knee Injury) Mosquera C. (Ankle Injury) White B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Everton: Dewsbury-Hall K. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Everton won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 18:38. (average 0.9:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Everton won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.1:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Everton
English Premier League
13.12.25	Chelsea - Everton	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Everton - Nottingham Forest	3:0 ✺
02.12.25	Bournemouth - Everton	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	Everton - Newcastle United	1:4 ✺
24.11.25	Manchester United - Everton	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 LWWLW
- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
13.12.25	Arsenal - Wolverhampton Wanderers	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Club Brugge - Arsenal	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Aston Villa - Arsenal	2:1 ✺
03.12.25	Arsenal - Brentford	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Chelsea - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
05.04.25	Everton - Arsenal	1:1
14.12.24	Arsenal - Everton	0:0
19.05.24	Arsenal - Everton	2:1
17.09.23	Everton - Arsenal	0:1
01.03.23	Arsenal - Everton	4:0
04.02.23	Everton - Arsenal	1:0
Club Friendly
16.07.22	Arsenal - Everton	2:0

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