Match Info

EFL Cup - Semi-finals

Date: 14 January 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stamford Bridge (London) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Hooper S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Afghanistan	00:30	Ariana, Meraj Sport
Africa	—	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 2
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	07:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League
Azerbaijan	00:00	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	21:00	RTL Play
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	17:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	17:00	Disney+
Colombia	15:00	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV3+, Viaplay
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	22:00	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	21:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	00:00	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	21:00	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, WOW
Haiti	15:00	Tele Haiti
Hungary	21:00	Match 4
Iceland	20:00	Viaplay
India	01:30	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	03:00	Vidio
Ireland	20:00	NOW
Israel	22:00	Sport 2
Japan	05:00	DAZN Japan
Kenya	23:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Kyrgyzstan	02:00	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	04:00	SKY NET Sports 3
Maldives	01:00	ICE Xtra
Malta	21:00	TSN Malta 2
Mexico	14:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Moldova	22:00	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	21:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	09:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	21:00	Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Peru	15:00	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV3
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	04:00	mio Sports 1
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 1
South Africa	22:00	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ESPN South
Suriname	17:00	SCCN
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Sky Sport Premier League
Tajikistan	01:00	Setanta Sports 1, Varzish Sport
Turkey	23:00	Exxen
Turkmenistan	01:00	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	22:00	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United Kingdom	20:00	BBC Radio 5 Live, NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Uzbekistan	01:00	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, ESPN
Vietnam	03:00	SCTV 15, SCTV Online


	Chelsea		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.5	1.86	Watch
	3.95	3.45	1.95	Watch
	4.14	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.6	3.2	2
	4.11	3.55	2.04	Watch
	4	3.5	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.98 ↑ (3)	3.47 ↓ (3.48)	1.96 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
23.9%

Draw
27.5%

Arsenal
48.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32%

27.6%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

27.6%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chelsea's form might have worsened.

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arsenal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chelsea, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arsenal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	16.7%	76.7%

Chelsea - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 2 - 6.7%). Arsenal will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 0.

Chelsea has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arsenal is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Arsenal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Arsenal will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Lavia R. (Thigh Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There will not play in Arsenal: Dowman M. (Ankle Injury) Hincapie P. (Injury) Mosquera C. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Gusto M. (Inactive) Wiley C. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Calafiori R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 25:39. (average 1.3:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelsea won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.7:1.7).

Outrights of English League Cup for now

Arsenal: 10.68% Chelsea: 5.81%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Charlton Athletic - Chelsea	1:5 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Fulham - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:1 ✺
30.12.25	Chelsea - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
27.12.25	Chelsea - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLTTL
- Arsenal FC
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Portsmouth - Arsenal	1:4 ✺
English Premier League
08.01.26	Arsenal - Liverpool	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Bournemouth - Arsenal	2:3 ✺
30.12.25	Arsenal - Aston Villa	4:1 ✺
27.12.25	Arsenal - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.11.25	Chelsea - Arsenal	1:1
16.03.25	Arsenal - Chelsea	1:0
10.11.24	Chelsea - Arsenal	1:1
23.04.24	Arsenal - Chelsea	5:0
21.10.23	Chelsea - Arsenal	2:2
02.05.23	Arsenal - Chelsea	3:1
06.11.22	Chelsea - Arsenal	0:1

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