Match Info

EFL Cup - Semi-finals

Date: 14 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stamford Bridge (London)

Referee: Hooper S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Chelsea		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.5	1.86	Watch
	3.95	3.45	1.95	Watch
	4.14	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.6	3.2	2
	4.11	3.55	2.04	Watch
	4	3.5	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.98 ↑ (3)	3.47 ↓ (3.48)	1.96 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
23.9%

Draw
27.5%

Arsenal
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

27.6%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

27.7%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chelsea's form might have worsened.

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arsenal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chelsea, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arsenal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	16.7%	76.7%

Chelsea - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 2 - 6.7%). Arsenal will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 0.

Chelsea has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arsenal is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Arsenal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Arsenal will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Lavia R. (Thigh Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There will not play in Arsenal: Dowman M. (Ankle Injury) Hincapie P. (Injury) Mosquera C. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Gusto M. (Inactive) Wiley C. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Calafiori R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 25:39. (average 1.3:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelsea won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.7:1.7).

Outrights of English League Cup for now

Arsenal: 24.78% Chelsea: 11.11%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Charlton Athletic - Chelsea	1:5 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Fulham - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:1 ✺
30.12.25	Chelsea - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
27.12.25	Chelsea - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLTTL
- Arsenal FC
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Portsmouth - Arsenal	1:4 ✺
English Premier League
08.01.26	Arsenal - Liverpool	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Bournemouth - Arsenal	2:3 ✺
30.12.25	Arsenal - Aston Villa	4:1 ✺
27.12.25	Arsenal - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.11.25	Chelsea - Arsenal	1:1
16.03.25	Arsenal - Chelsea	1:0
10.11.24	Chelsea - Arsenal	1:1
23.04.24	Arsenal - Chelsea	5:0
21.10.23	Chelsea - Arsenal	2:2
02.05.23	Arsenal - Chelsea	3:1
06.11.22	Chelsea - Arsenal	0:1

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