Match Info

Premier League - Round 14

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Emirates Stadium (London)

Referee: Harrington T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, DStv Now, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
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Australia	Stan Sport
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Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 6 DRM, FuboTV
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
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Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	Canal+ Live 4
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 6, WOW
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Haiti	Canal+ Sport 2
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 3, Now Sports Premier League TV
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Ireland	NOW
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Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Uno
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Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
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Slovakia	Voyo
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South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 2 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
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Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC Universo, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW, USA Network
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Sport 24, Sport 24 At Sea


	Arsenal		Brentford

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.75	7.5
	1.42	4.8	7.8
	1.42	4.8	8.32
	1.44	4.82	7.8	Watch
	1.4	4.6	7.5
	1.46	4.81	8.2	Watch
	1.44	4.5	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.3)	4.73 ↓ (5.63)	7.8 ↓ (9.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal
67.4%

Draw
20.3%

Brentford
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

73%

16.9%

10.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.1%

16.6%

10%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arsenal's form might have worsened.

Brentford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arsenal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brentford than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.9%	7.1%	7.1%

Arsenal - Brentford Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Arsenal (2.24) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Brentford (2.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (72 of 82 users predict this - 87.8%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.72% – 94.88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (29 of 33 users predict this - 87.88%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 37 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 32 - 86.5%). Brentford (votes: 5 - 13.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raya D. (G) 4. White B. 3. Mosquera C. 5. Hincapie P. 33. Calafiori R. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 36. Zubimendi M. 41. Rice D. 20. Madueke N. 23. Merino M. 11. Martinelli G.	1. Kelleher C. (G) 20. Ajer K. 4. van den Berg S. 5. Pinnock E. 33. Kayode M. 18. Yarmolyuk Y. 27. Janelt V. 8. Jensen M. (C) 3. Henry R. 19. Ouattara Da. 7. Schade K.
Substitutes
13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 10. Eze E. 9. Gabriel Jesus 14. Gyökeres V. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 16. Norgaard C. 22. Nwaneri E. 7. Saka B. 12. Timber J.	43. Arthur B. 22. Collins N. 24. Damsgaard M. 49. Donovan R. 6. Henderson J. 23. Lewis-Potter K. 15. Onyeka F. 9. Thiago I. 12. Valdimarsson H. R. (G)
Coaches
Arteta M.	Andrews K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Merino M. ⚽, White B. (A),
44', Mosquera C. ↓, Timber J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Jensen M. ↓, Damsgaard M. ↑,
61', Schade K. ↓, Thiago I. ↑,
61', Janelt V. ↓, Henderson J. ↑,
61', Madueke N. ↓, Saka B. ↑,
61', Martinelli G. ↓, Eze E. ↑,
65', Yarmolyuk Y. 🟨,
74', Pinnock E. ↓, Collins N. ↑,
74', Henry R. ↓, Lewis-Potter K. ↑,
84', Rice D. ↓, Gyökeres V. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 0, Saka B. ⚽, Merino M. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 4.

Arsenal is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Brentford has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Arsenal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Arsenal is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Arsenal: Gabriel (Muscle Injury) Havertz K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Brentford: Carvalho F. (Knee Injury) Dasilva J. (Knee Injury) Milambo A. (Knee Injury) Nelson R. (Loan agreement)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Saliba W. (Injury) Trossard L. (Injury)

We predict that Arsenal will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:8. (average 1.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
30.11.25	Chelsea - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
23.11.25	Arsenal - Tottenham Hotspur	4:1 ✺
08.11.25	Sunderland - Arsenal	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Slavia Prague - Arsenal	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TWWTW
- Brentford FC
English Premier League
29.11.25	Brentford - Burnley	3:1 ✺
22.11.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Brentford	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Brentford - Newcastle United	3:1 ✺
01.11.25	Crystal Palace - Brentford	2:0 ✺
English League Cup
28.10.25	Grimsby Town - Brentford	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
12.04.25	Arsenal - Brentford	1:1
01.01.25	Brentford - Arsenal	1:3
09.03.24	Arsenal - Brentford	2:1
25.11.23	Brentford - Arsenal	0:1
English League Cup
27.09.23	Brentford - Arsenal	0:1
English Premier League
11.02.23	Arsenal - Brentford	1:1
18.09.22	Brentford - Arsenal	0:3

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