Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 8

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Woudestein (Rotterdam) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Martens R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Netherlands	16:45	ESPN


	Excelsior		Groningen

	1	X	2
	2.80	3.60	2.35	Watch
	2.65	3.60	2.45
	2.70	3.45	2.40
	2.78	3.64	2.51
	2.58	3.69	2.53	Watch
	2.65	3.60	2.40
	2.94	3.66	2.34	Watch
	2.65	3.55	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.57)	3.6 ↓ (3.67)	2.42 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Excelsior
34.8%

Draw
26.3%

Groningen
39%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.8%

25.7%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

25.8%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Groningen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Groningen than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Excelsior - Groningen Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Excelsior will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Groningen will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. van Gassel S. (G) 2. da Silva Moreira E. 4. Widell C. (C) 14. Plug J. 15. Janssen S. 8. Yegoian I. 3. Meissen R. 20. Hartjes L. 7. Sliti A. 19. Garden D. 30. Thorsteinsson A.	1. Vaessen E. (G) 14. Schreuders J. 3. Blokzijl T. (C) 5. Rente M. 33. Hateboer H. 8. de Jonge T. 24. Clement P. 17. van der Werff D. 26. van Bergen T. 11. Ondrejka J. 9. Willumsson B.
Substitutes
16. Biai C. (G) 12. Bos K. 24. Cairo G. 9. Dominguez M. 28. Groen N. 11. Jahanbakhsh A. 21. Silva Timas I. 18. Sulzbacher V. 22. Turay O. 6. van Vianen D.	30. Boevink P. (G) 4. Csinger M. 20. Eggens N. 53. Hall J. 18. Land T. 34. Metu R. 42. Mosselaar J. 16. Nordin A. 2. Prins W. 13. Stubljar L. (G) 19. Zawada O.
Coaches
den Uil R.	Lukkien D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Rente M. ⚽,
20', van der Werff D. 🟨,
36', 1 - 1, Yegoian I. (Penalty Awarded),
38', 1 - 2, van Gassel S. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
64', 1 - 3, van Bergen T. (Penalty Awarded),
65', Janssen S. ↓, Bos K. ↑,
65', Garden D. ↓, Dominguez M. ↑,
65', Thorsteinsson A. ↓, van Vianen D. ↑,
65', da Silva Moreira E. ↓, Sulzbacher V. ↑,
67', Ondrejka J. ↓, Land T. ↑,
67', 1 - 4, Willumsson B. ⚽, Clement P. (A),
72', Hateboer H. ↓, Csinger M. ↑,
81', Land T. 🟨,
81', Sliti A. ↓, Jahanbakhsh A. ↑,
84', Willumsson B. ↓, Eggens N. ↑,
85', van Bergen T. ↓, Metu R. ↑,
85', van der Werff D. ↓, Zawada O. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 5, Rente M. ⚽,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 7th in the Promotion - Eredivisie Conference League - Playoffs and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 2.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Excelsior: Naujoks N. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Groningen: Brandis N. (Injury) Hernes T. (Injury) Jeng M. (Leg Injury) Mercera T. (Injury) Metu R. (Injury) Prins W. (Inactive) van der Laan E. (Injury).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Excelsior has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:32 (averaging 0.9:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Excelsior against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 12:15 goals (averaging 1.2:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Groningen	10	4	3	3	24:21	3	15
13	Excelsior	10	3	2	5	16:19	-3	11

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Groningen: 0.21% Excelsior: 0.17%

Last Results with these Odds

Excelsior - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.76%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Groningen - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.49%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
19.09.26	Ajax - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Excelsior - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	NEC Nijmegen - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Willem II - Excelsior	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 TLTWW
- FC Groningen
Dutch Eredivisie
18.09.26	Groningen - Zwolle	3:0 ✺
12.09.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Groningen	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Groningen - Twente	2:2 ✺
28.08.26	Groningen - Fortuna Sittard	2:3 ✺
23.08.26	PSV Eindhoven - Groningen	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
02.05.26	Groningen - Excelsior	2:3
05.12.25	Excelsior - Groningen	0:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
16.01.24	Excelsior - Groningen	0:2
Dutch Eredivisie
25.02.23	Groningen - Excelsior	3:0
08.01.23	Excelsior - Groningen	1:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
15.12.21	Excelsior - Groningen	2:4 ET
Dutch Eredivisie
06.04.19	Groningen - Excelsior	1:0

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