Match Info

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday


	Excelsior		Groningen

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.6	2.55	Watch
	2.55	3.60	2.55
	2.55	3.6	2.55
	2.59	3.72	2.54
	2.57	3.67	2.52	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.5
	2.61	3.69	2.58	Watch
	2.5	3.6	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (2.57)	3.62 ↓ (3.67)	2.54 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Excelsior
36.9%

Draw
26%

Groningen
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

25.7%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

25.8%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Groningen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Groningen than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Excelsior - Groningen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7th in the Promotion - Eredivisie Conference League - Playoffs and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 2.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Excelsior has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:32 (averaging 0.9:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Excelsior against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 12:15 goals (averaging 1.2:1.5 per game).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Groningen: 0.31% Excelsior: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15:9	6	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15:13	2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Excelsior - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.76%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Groningen - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.49%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
19.09.26	Ajax - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Excelsior - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	NEC Nijmegen - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Willem II - Excelsior	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 TLTWW
- FC Groningen
Dutch Eredivisie
18.09.26	Groningen - Zwolle	3:0 ✺
12.09.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Groningen	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Groningen - Twente	2:2 ✺
28.08.26	Groningen - Fortuna Sittard	2:3 ✺
23.08.26	PSV Eindhoven - Groningen	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
02.05.26	Groningen - Excelsior	2:3
05.12.25	Excelsior - Groningen	0:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
16.01.24	Excelsior - Groningen	0:2
Dutch Eredivisie
25.02.23	Groningen - Excelsior	3:0
08.01.23	Excelsior - Groningen	1:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
15.12.21	Excelsior - Groningen	2:4 ET
Dutch Eredivisie
06.04.19	Groningen - Excelsior	1:0

Excelsior - Groningen: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide