Match Info

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday


	Fortuna Sittard		Excelsior

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.7	2.38
	2.65	3.6	2.48
	2.63	3.22	2.72	Watch
	2.71	3.82	2.44	Watch
	2.6	3.7	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↓ (2.65)	3.61 ↓ (3.75)	2.48 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortuna Sittard
35.7%

Draw
26.2%

Excelsior
38.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.6%

25.2%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

25.5%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortuna Sittard has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortuna Sittard than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 7th in the Promotion - Eredivisie Conference League - Playoffs and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortuna Sittard won 2.

Fortuna Sittard is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Excelsior has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Fortuna Sittard could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Fortuna Sittard has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:20 (averaging 1.8:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Fortuna Sittard against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 18:8 goals (averaging 3:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Sittard	8	4	2	2	14:15	-1	14
10	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	16:18	-2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Excelsior - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 39.18%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortuna Sittard
Dutch Eredivisie
10.10.26	Fortuna Sittard - Twente	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Genk - Fortuna Sittard	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
19.09.26	Willem II - Fortuna Sittard	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	1:5 ✺
06.09.26	ADO Den Haag - Fortuna Sittard	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.3 TWWLW
- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
16.10.26	Heerenveen - Excelsior	4:0 ✺
11.10.26	Excelsior - Groningen	1:5 ✺
19.09.26	Ajax - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Excelsior - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	NEC Nijmegen - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
20.02.26	Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior	2:1
19.10.25	Excelsior - Fortuna Sittard	1:0
03.03.24	Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior	5:2
26.08.23	Excelsior - Fortuna Sittard	2:2
21.05.23	Excelsior - Fortuna Sittard	3:0
17.09.22	Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior	1:0
10.02.19	Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior	4:1

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