Match Info

League One - Round 12

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Durkin J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Exeter City		Reading

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.6	2.1	Watch
	2.82	3.35	2.38	Watch
	3.09	3.59	2.29
	3.19	2.67	2.62	Watch
	2.82	3.38	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.3)	3.32 ↓ (3.45)	2.36 ↓ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
31.5%

Draw
28.5%

Reading
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

27.1%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

27.4%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Exeter City's form might have worsened.

Reading has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Reading's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Exeter City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Reading than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Reading, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	28.6%	57.1%

Exeter City - Reading Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Reading will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Reading: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Exeter (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Reading (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Reading (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Exeter (votes: 1 - 25%). Reading (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Whitworth J. (G) 26. Sweeney P. (C) 5. Fitzwater J. 15. Yfeko J. 21. Andrew D. 2. McMillan J. 6. Brierley E. 14. Niskanen I. 12. Cole R. 17. Higgins A. 9. Wareham J.	1. Pereira J. (G) 39. Ahmed A. 12. Burns F. 15. O'Connor P. 5. Jacob M. 10. Wing L. (C) 8. Savage C. 30. Ritchie M. 29. Doyle K. 32. Lane P. 7. Marriott J.
Substitutes
10. Aitchison J. 23. Bycroft J. (G) 33. Dean T. 29. McDonald K. 4. Turns E. 37. Wilson K. 20. Woodhouse L.	2. Abrefa K. 3. Dorsett A. J. R. 9. Ehibhatiomhan K. 4. Elliott B. 11. Kyerewaa D. 25. Stevens J. (G) 17. Yiadom A.
Coaches
Caldwell G.	Hunt N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Marriott J. ⚽,
11', 1 - 1, Wareham J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Ritchie M. 🟨,
64', Higgins A. ↓, Aitchison J. ↑,
71', Doyle K. ↓, Ehibhatiomhan K. ↑,
75', Yfeko J. ↓, McDonald K. ↑,
82', Ahmed A. ↓, Abrefa K. ↑,
83', Ritchie M. ↓, Yiadom A. ↑,
87', Cole R. ↓, Dean T. ↑,
87', Brierley E. ↓, Wilson K. ↑,
90+4', Wareham J. 🟨,
90+9', Jacob M. ↓, Dorsett A. J. R. ↑,
90+9', Lane P. ↓, Kyerewaa D. ↑,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 17 and 19)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 1.

Exeter has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Reading's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Exeter may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Exeter: Borges P. (Knee Injury) Cox S. (Groin Injury) Mendes C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Reading: Camara M. (Ankle Injury) Williams D. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Exeter: Rydel R. (Injury) Swinkels S. (Knee Injury) Yfeko J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Reading: Fraser L. (Inactive) Garcia A. (Injury) O'Connor P. (Calf Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:16. (average 0.8:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Exeter won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:13. (average 0.8:3.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
04.10.25	Lincoln City - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Exeter City - Huddersfield Town	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Stevenage Borough - Exeter City	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
16.09.25	Exeter City - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
English League One
13.09.25	Exeter City - Port Vale	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLLL
- Reading
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Reading - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0 ✺
English League One
04.10.25	Reading - Mansfield Town	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
30.09.25	Reading - West Ham United U21	3:1 ✺
English League One
27.09.25	Stockport County - Reading	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Wrexham - Reading	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
04.03.25	Reading - Exeter City	0:0
22.10.24	Exeter City - Reading	1:2
01.01.24	Reading - Exeter City	3:2
English EFL Trophy
19.09.23	Exeter City - Reading	0:9
English League One
26.08.23	Exeter City - Reading	2:1
Club Friendly
15.07.14	Exeter City - Reading	0:1

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