Match Info

League One - Round 3

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Exeter City		Mansfield Town

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.25	2.55
	2.65	3.4	2.5
	2.92	3.35	2.32
	2.76	3.48	2.57
	2.73	3.16	2.58	Watch
	2.62	3.2	2.5
	2.66	3.38	2.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.6)	3.32 ↓ (3.45)	2.52 ↓ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Exeter City
34.5%

Draw
28.3%

Mansfield Town
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

27.4%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

27.8%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Mansfield Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mansfield Town than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	22.2%	33.3%

Exeter City - Mansfield Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Mansfield will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Exeter: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Exeter (votes: 1 - 25%). Mansfield (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Exeter (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Exeter (votes: 2 - 40%). Mansfield (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Whitworth J. (G) 4. Turns E. 5. Fitzwater J. 16. Swinkels S. 14. Niskanen I. 31. Doyle-Hayes J. 6. Brierley E. 2. McMillan J. 12. Cole R. (C) 10. Aitchison J. 9. Wareham J.	1. Roberts L. (G) 2. Knoyle K. 9. Bowery J. 6. Cargill B. 27. Bolton L. 25. Reed L. (C) 15. McDonnell J. 24. Hendry R. 20. Blake-Tracy F. 11. Evans W. 10. Maris G.
Substitutes
23. Bycroft J. (G) 19. Cox S. 45. Cummins C. 33. Dean T. 27. Magennis J. 29. McDonald K. 3. Rydel R.	17. Dickov M. 30. Flanagan F. 4. Hewitt E. 8. Lewis A. 12. Mason O. (G) 21. McAdam K. 22. Moriah-Welsh N.
Coaches
Caldwell G.	Clough N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
42', 0 - 1, Blake-Tracy F. ⚽, Maris G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Cole R. ↓, Rydel R. ↑,
46', Fitzwater J. 🟨,
60', Doyle-Hayes J. ↓, Magennis J. ↑,
66', Hendry R. ↓, Lewis A. ↑,
67', Bolton L. ↓, Dickov M. ↑,
67', Wareham J. ↓, Cox S. ↑,
71', Swinkels S. 🟨,
76', 1 - 1, Magennis J. (Pen),
78', Blake-Tracy F. 🟨,
80', Blake-Tracy F. ↓, Hewitt E. ↑,
86', 1 - 2, Evans W. ⚽, Lewis A. (A),
89', Maris G. ↓, McAdam K. ↑,
89', Evans W. ↓, Moriah-Welsh N. ↑,
90', Swinkels S. ↓, Dean T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 2.

Exeter has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mansfield is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mansfield may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Exeter: Borges P. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mansfield: Gardner J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Exeter: Yfeko J. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Mansfield: Oates R. (Injury) Oshilaja A. (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:23. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Exeter won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.1:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Exeter City - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 36.4%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League Cup
13.08.25	Cheltenham Town - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
English League One
09.08.25	Exeter City - Blackpool	4:1 ✺
02.08.25	Doncaster Rovers - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Exeter City - Swansea City	1:0 ✺
25.07.25	Torquay United - Exeter City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWLWT
- Mansfield Town
English League Cup
12.08.25	Chesterfield - Mansfield Town	0:2 ✺
English League One
09.08.25	Mansfield Town - Doncaster Rovers	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	Burton Albion - Mansfield Town	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.25	Matlock Town - Mansfield Town	1:1 ✺
22.07.25	Mansfield Town - Oxford United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
03.05.25	Mansfield Town - Exeter City	3:0
11.03.25	Exeter City - Mansfield Town	2:0
English League Two
04.03.22	Mansfield Town - Exeter City	2:1
23.10.21	Exeter City - Mansfield Town	2:1
05.04.21	Exeter City - Mansfield Town	0:0
26.09.20	Mansfield Town - Exeter City	1:2
31.08.19	Exeter City - Mansfield Town	1:0

Upcoming Matches