Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi (Arequipa) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ordonez E. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Peru	18:00	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	19:00	Fanatiz


	FBC Melgar		Cajamarca

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	7	Watch
	1.58	3.7	4.6
	1.41	4.3	7.5	Watch
	1.43	4.66	7.31
	1.39	4.89	7.16	Watch
	1.4	4.2	7
	1.43	4.4	6.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.57)	4.38 ↑ (3.95)	6.76 ↑ (5.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
64.9%

Draw
21.3%

Cajamarca
13.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.7%

23.7%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

23.3%

16.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in FBC Melgar's performance.

Cajamarca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

FBC Melgar - Cajamarca Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Cabezudo J. (G) 33. Lazo M. 23. Escobar J. 5. Deneumostier A. 27. Cabanillas N. 24. Tandazo W. 6. Salas J. 8. Guzman L. 10. Quagliata N. 45. Zegarra M. 11. Vidales J. (C)	29. Barrios I. (C) 35. Paredes G. 3. Ganoza M. 6. Cavagna F. 13. Caro D. 8. Dioses D. 16. Figuera A. 15. Cantt J. 10. Lliuya M. 19. Munoz A. 22. Camacho D.
Substitutes
20. Bernaola G. 12. Caceda C. (G) 16. Caceres J. 9. Cuesta B. 80. D'Arrigo J. 17. De Santis J. 22. Erustes P. 14. Gamero Y. 4. Ramos A.	88. Arce L. 11. Arroyo A. 21. Bettocchi R. (G) 9. de Jesus M. 18. Galvez S. 17. Garro L. 7. Nunez J. 14. Rasmussen M.
Coaches
Balta V.	Bustos C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Cantt J. 🟨,
45+4', Deneumostier A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', Guzman L. ↓, Caceres J. ↑,
67', Munoz A. ↓, Arroyo A. ↑,
70', Caro D. 🟨,
71', Zegarra M. ↓, Cuesta B. ↑,
73', Dioses D. ↓, Garro L. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Cuesta B. ⚽, Vidales J. (A),
78', 2 - 0, Quagliata N. ⚽,
79', Cantt J. ↓, Nunez J. ↑,
79', Paredes G. ↓, Galvez S. ↑,
79', Camacho D. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,
83', Quagliata N. ↓, D'Arrigo J. ↑,
83', Cabanillas N. ↓, Ramos A. ↑,
83', Salas J. ↓, Bernaola G. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 4.

In recent matches, Melgar has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cajamarca's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Melgar is the team to beat.

There will not play in Melgar: Bordacahar C. (Knee Injury) Orzan H. (Injury) Zanelatto F. (Injury)

There will not play in Cajamarca: Duarte B. (Yellow Cards) Serra P. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Cajamarca: Campos A. (Injury) Medina J. (Broken Hand)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:22. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Melgar won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:7. (average 1.4:0.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	FBC Melgar	13	7	4	2	24:14	10	25
18	Cajamarca	14	1	2	11	15:29	-14	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
27.04.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - FBC Melgar	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	FBC Melgar - Universitario de Deportes	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Sport Boys - FBC Melgar	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	FBC Melgar - Cusco	1:3 ✺
20.03.26	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWWLT
- UTC De Cajamarca
Peruvian Liga 1
26.04.26	Cajamarca - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Sporting Cristal - Cajamarca	3:2 ✺
15.04.26	Cajamarca - Sport Huancayo	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Juan Pablo II College - Cajamarca	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Cajamarca - Alianza Atlético	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
19.07.25	Cajamarca - FBC Melgar	1:2
08.02.25	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	3:0
22.10.24	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	1:0
12.05.24	Cajamarca - FBC Melgar	2:6
15.08.23	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	1:1
18.03.23	Cajamarca - FBC Melgar	0:0
29.07.22	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	1:0

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