Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 11

Date: 14 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Lasnamäe Sports Complex Stadium (Tallinn)


	FC Tallinn		Tallinna Kalev

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.05	4.35	1.58	Watch
	4	4.36	1.62
	4.06	4.43	1.61	Watch
	4	3.9	1.6
	4.06	4.51	1.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.03 ↑ (2.82)	4.31 ↑ (3.95)	1.61 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FC Tallinn
22.5%

Draw
21.1%

Tallinna Kalev
56.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

22.7%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

21.8%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FC Tallinn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that FC Tallinn's form might have worsened.

Tallinna Kalev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tallinna Kalev's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FC Tallinn than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for FC Tallinn, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tallinna Kalev than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tallinna Kalev, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

FC Tallinn - Tallinna Kalev Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Kalev will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 0 - 1, De Pizzol O. (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', 1 - 1, Ekharts D. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 8 in the zone Esiliiga (Relegation) and 5).

FC Tallinn has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kalev has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Kalev is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, FC Tallinn won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:10. (average 0.5:5).

Including home match between the teams, FC Tallinn won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:5.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Tallinna Kalev	30	11	7	12	52:55	-3	40
8	FC Tallinn	30	8	8	14	39:63	-24	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tallinn
Estonian Esiliiga
07.05.26	Elva - FC Tallinn	2:0 ✺
01.05.26	FC Tallinn - Tartu Welco	0:2 ✺
27.04.26	FC Tallinn - Levadia Tallinn U21	4:2 ✺
23.04.26	Maardu Linnameeskond - FC Tallinn	1:1 ✺
16.04.26	Viimsi JK - FC Tallinn	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLWTL
- Tallinna Kalev
Estonian Esiliiga
09.05.26	Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Welco	2:0 ✺
01.05.26	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme United U21	4:4 ✺
27.04.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Tallinna Kalev	0:4 ✺
23.04.26	Levadia Tallinn U21 - Tallinna Kalev	3:2 ✺
16.04.26	Tallinna Kalev - Flora U21	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
15.03.26	Tallinna Kalev - FC Tallinn	5:1
Estonian Cup
05.03.25	FC Tallinn - Tallinna Kalev	0:5

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