Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 12

Date: 23 June 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Project Liv Arena (Pietarsaari) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	19:00	Ruutu+
International	16:00	Onefootball


	FF Jaro		Gnistan

	1	X	2
	3.40	3.70	1.90	Watch
	3.50	3.60	1.93
	3.30	3.45	2.02
	3.58	3.96	2.01
	3.71	3.88	1.9	Watch
	3.30	3.60	1.95
	3.65	3.77	1.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (2.48)	3.71 ↑ (3.4)	1.94 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

FF Jaro
26.7%

Draw
25.2%

Gnistan
48.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.1%

27%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

27.2%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FF Jaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that FF Jaro's form might have worsened.

Gnistan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gnistan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FF Jaro than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for FF Jaro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gnistan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.3%	8.7%	87%

FF Jaro - Gnistan Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Jaro will win (votes: 1 - 4.8%). Gnistan will win (votes: 20 - 95.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gnistan: 86.1% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gnistan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vits S. (G) 5. Bjonback A. 6. Brunell J. (C) 7. Skau J. 22. Harden K. 16. Vidjeskog A. 8. Kass Kawo O. 19. Ness F. O. 11. Sjogrell H. 15. Vikstrom R. 91. Vuorinen V.	1. Craninx A. (G) 24. Gnanou R. 67. Obileye A. (C) 4. Marcelo Costa 27. Hannula O. 15. Europaeus G. 14. Eremenko S. 10. Latonen J. 23. Ylatupa S. 17. Akinyemi A. 26. Eremenko R.
Substitutes
3. Gunnarsson E. 2. Kass F. 24. Lofs V. 95. Mendy E. 30. Najafi M. 17. Nyman L. 12. Snellman J. (G) 20. Soderstrom T. 27. Vikstrom J.	7. Atarah A. 20. Bjurstrom M. H. 2. Dahlstrom B. 5. Freitas Von Hellens J. 19. Hanninen V. 31. Jouhi A. 40. Ojala J. 11. Perez D. 22. Ramilson (G)
Coaches
Karlsson J.	Leppalahti J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Ylatupa S. ⚽, Akinyemi A. (A),
31', Marcelo Costa 🟨,
33', Eremenko R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 1 - 1, Vikstrom R. ⚽, Kass Kawo O. (A),
60', Ylatupa S. 🟨,
62', Akinyemi A. ↓, Perez D. ↑,
66', Brunell J. 🟨,
68', Perez D. 🟨,
75', Vuorinen V. ↓, Mendy E. ↑,
84', Sjogrell H. ↓, Vikstrom J. ↑,
85', Eremenko S. ↓, Jouhi A. ↑,
88', Eremenko R. ↓, Atarah A. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 11 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jaro won 1.

Jaro has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gnistan is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Gnistan might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Jaro: Gunnarsson E. (Injury) Myrevik J. (Injury) Ogungbaro M. (Red Card) Pedersen M. (Injury) Weckstrom L. (Injury) Zetterstrom L. (Injury)

There will not play in Gnistan: Arko-Mensah E. (Yellow Cards) Bashkirov E. (Knee Injury) Launiala K. (Inactive) Lyberopoulos O. (Inactive) von Hellens L. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Jaro won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:22. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Jaro won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:9. (average 1.6:1.3).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Gnistan	29	11	9	9	43:41	2	42

Last Results with these Odds

Gnistan - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.97%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FF Jaro
Finnish Veikkausliiga
17.06.26	Ilves - FF Jaro	5:0 ✺
13.06.26	FF Jaro - HJK	2:5 ✺
31.05.26	Oulu - FF Jaro	2:1 ✺
23.05.26	FF Jaro - IFK Mariehamn	3:0 ✺
20.05.26	KuPS Kuopio - FF Jaro	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLWL
- IF Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
17.06.26	Gnistan - Lahti	1:0 ✺
13.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - Gnistan	0:3 ✺
30.05.26	Gnistan - SJK	3:2 ✺
23.05.26	Ilves - Gnistan	2:0 ✺
16.05.26	Gnistan - FF Jaro	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
16.05.26	Gnistan - FF Jaro	5:0
31.08.25	Gnistan - FF Jaro	1:2
24.05.25	FF Jaro - Gnistan	1:1
Finnish Ykkonen
20.08.23	Gnistan - FF Jaro	1:1
19.07.23	FF Jaro - Gnistan	2:2
12.08.22	Gnistan - FF Jaro	2:2
12.06.22	FF Jaro - Gnistan	0:2

Upcoming Matches