Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 11

Date: 17 June 2026, Wednesday

Location: Markku.fi Areena (Helsinki)

Referee: Munukka A. (Fin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	Gnistan		Lahti

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.40	2.60	Watch
	2.45	3.40	2.70
	2.40	3.30	2.75	Watch
	2.54	3.55	2.81
	2.54	3.25	2.85	Watch
	2.45	3.30	2.62
	2.38	3.46	2.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.58)	3.38 ↑ (3.3)	2.73 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gnistan
38.1%

Draw
27.7%

Lahti
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

27.9%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

27.7%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gnistan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Lahti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lahti than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	30.8%	23.1%

Gnistan - Lahti Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Gnistan will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Lahti will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gnistan: 8% – 64.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Craninx A. (G) 24. Gnanou R. 67. Obileye A. (C) 4. Marcelo Costa 27. Hannula O. 15. Europaeus G. 14. Eremenko S. 10. Latonen J. 26. Eremenko R. 17. Akinyemi A. 23. Ylatupa S.	31. Maukonen O. (G) 7. Heikkinen D. 5. Gianini Dantas N. (C) 4. Muller J. 3. Sans R. 8. Montiel C. 18. Cassubie Y. 14. Andersson E. 77. Sarr M. 9. Lindholm A. 17. Belabid A.
Substitutes
12. Arko-Mensah E. 7. Atarah A. 20. Bjurstrom M. H. 2. Dahlstrom B. 19. Hanninen V. 31. Jouhi A. 40. Ojala J. 11. Perez D. 22. Ramilson (G)	12. Hakala A. (G) 25. Inkinen T. 28. Kabashi A. 10. Koskinen O. 2. Lehtonen J. 19. Neemias 20. Ojanen J. 21. Vainionpaa M. 6. Vehkonen V.
Coaches
Leppalahti J.	Pereira G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Gianini Dantas N. 🟨,
34', Cassubie Y. ↓, Kabashi A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ylatupa S. ↓, Arko-Mensah E. ↑,
46', Gianini Dantas N. ↓, Vehkonen V. ↑,
51', 1 - 0, Obileye A. ⚽,
55', Obileye A. ↓, Ojala J. ↑,
60', Lindholm A. ↓, Neemias ↑,
64', Latonen J. ↓, Jouhi A. ↑,
64', Belabid A. 🟨,
68', Andersson E. ↓, Koskinen O. ↑,
68', Belabid A. ↓, Ojanen J. ↑,
79', Eremenko R. ↓, Atarah A. ↑,
79', Akinyemi A. ↓, Perez D. ↑,
79', Marcelo Costa 🟨,
82', Montiel C. 🟨,
84', Arko-Mensah E. 🟨,
90+1', Jouhi A. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 9 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gnistan won 1.

Gnistan is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lahti has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gnistan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Gnistan: Bashkirov E. (Knee Injury) Lyberopoulos O. (Inactive) von Hellens L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Lahti: Yapi R. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Gnistan: Launiala K. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Gnistan won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:19. (average 1.9:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Gnistan won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Gnistan	26	11	9	6	40:32	8	42

Last Results with these Odds

Gnistan - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 35.71%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IF Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
13.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - Gnistan	0:3 ✺
30.05.26	Gnistan - SJK	3:2 ✺
23.05.26	Ilves - Gnistan	2:0 ✺
16.05.26	Gnistan - FF Jaro	5:0 ✺
09.05.26	VPS Vaasa - Gnistan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWLWT
- FC Lahti
Finnish Veikkausliiga
13.06.26	Lahti - SJK	2:3 ✺
Finnish Cup
10.06.26	Ilves - Lahti	5:2 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
30.05.26	Lahti - Ilves	5:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
26.05.26	IFK Mariehamn - Lahti	0:1 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.05.26	KuPS Kuopio - Lahti	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
22.02.26	Gnistan - Lahti	0:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga
05.10.24	Gnistan - Lahti	2:2
19.06.24	Lahti - Gnistan	3:3
02.06.24	Gnistan - Lahti	2:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
17.02.24	Gnistan - Lahti	1:2
Club Friendly
04.03.22	Lahti - Gnistan	4:2
24.04.21	Lahti - Gnistan	4:2

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