Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 13

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe (Fafe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Fafe		Sporting Lisbon B

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.25	3.75
	2.09	3.3	3.15
	2.13	3.57	3.2
	2.17	3.37	3.25	Watch
	2.13	3.37	3.32	Watch
	2.09	3.3	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.95)	3.36 ↓ (3.48)	3.3 ↓ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fafe
44.6%

Draw
27.5%

Sporting Lisbon B
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

26.3%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

26%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fafe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Sporting Lisbon B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon B than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Fafe - Sporting Lisbon B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Alves C. (G) 21. Pereira M. 4. Teixeira L. 26. Batista J. 13. Vigario J. 6. Lucas Vital 8. Braga V. 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 11. Picas 7. Leite T. 9. Kodama R.	41. Diego Callai (G) 45. Moreira D. 43. Muniz J. 53. Dias R. 55. Silva J. 50. Brito A. 73. Felicissimo E. 76. Blopa S. 78. Couto M. 90. Moreira A. 88. Mendonca M.
Substitutes
20. Amorim J. 22. Bruninho 12. Farias E. 44. Morais B. 5. Nandinho 10. Serra Matos P. M. 3. Silva G. 2. Sousa B.	67. Anjos L. 81. Arreiol H. 80. Gomes L. 58. Goncalves F. 79. Marques R. 86. Nel R. 74. Pires G. (G) 82. Silva G. 95. Taibo Dominguez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Teixeira L. 🟨,
31', Brito A. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Picas ⚽,
37', Blopa S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Silva J. ↓, Arreiol H. ↑,
46', Brito A. ↓, Nel R. ↑,
61', Kodama R. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
67', Blopa S. ↓, Anjos L. ↑,
74', Felicissimo E. ↓, Gomes L. ↑,
79', Mendonca M. ↓, Silva G. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Nel R. ⚽,
83', Batista J. 🟨,
90', Pereira M. ↓, Sousa B. ↑,
90', Lucas Vital ↓, Serra Matos P. M. ↑,
90+11', 1 - 2, Nel R. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 5 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Fafe is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sporting B has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Fafe will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Fafe won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Fafe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
04.05.25	Belenenses - Fafe	3:2 ✺
26.04.25	Fafe - Atlético CP	2:0 ✺
20.04.25	Lusitânia - Fafe	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Fafe - Amarante	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	1 Dezembro - Fafe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LWLTL
- Sporting Lisbon B
Portuguese Liga 3
04.05.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Varzim	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	1 Dezembro - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Belenenses - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Lusitânia - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Fafe	0:0
Portuguese Liga 2
28.01.17	Fafe - Sporting Lisbon B	2:0
20.08.16	Sporting Lisbon B - Fafe	2:4

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