Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 12

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira (Alcochete)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Sporting Lisbon B		Varzim

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	2.9
	2.32	3	3
	2.38	3.06	3.31
	2.36	3.08	3.15	Watch
	2.25	3.04	3.1
	2.32	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.27)	3.03 ↓ (3.1)	3.08 ↑ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon B
39.8%

Draw
30.3%

Varzim
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

29.2%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

28.7%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Varzim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon B than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Sporting Lisbon B - Varzim Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Diego Callai (G) 45. Moreira D. 43. Muniz J. 76. Blopa S. 53. Dias R. 50. Brito A. 55. Silva J. 88. Mendonca M. (C) 78. Couto M. 90. Moreira A. 86. Nel R.	51. Momo Mbaye (G) 3. Nuno P. 25. Chicao 32. Pedrosa R. 23. Monteiro J. 8. Oliveira R. (C) 22. Araujo C. 85. Rebelo M. 19. Lopes A. 14. Graca H. 99. Moshood M.
Substitutes
81. Arreiol H. 80. Gomes L. 58. Goncalves F. 46. Junior M. 79. Marques R. 51. Pinto D. (G) 71. Santos D. 82. Silva G. 95. Taibo Dominguez L.	49. Costa P. (G) 80. Gomes A. 70. Lapas Montenegro L. M. 5. Milhazes A. 6. Pacheco F. 10. Pereira N. 2. Pimenta G. 17. Sequeira D. 9. Silva Nhaga I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Rebelo M. 🟥,
20', Oliveira R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', Blopa S. 🟨,
63', Brito A. ↓, Arreiol H. ↑,
70', Araujo C. ↓, Sequeira D. ↑,
70', Graca H. ↓, Silva Nhaga I. ↑,
70', Moshood M. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
75', 1 - 0, Muniz J. ⚽,
76', Nel R. ↓, Silva G. ↑,
81', Pedrosa R. ↓, Pimenta G. ↑,
81', Monteiro J. ↓, Pereira N. ↑,
86', Goncalves F. 🟨,
90', Couto M. ↓, Taibo Dominguez L. ↑,
90', Moreira A. ↓, Gomes L. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 0, Gomes L. ⚽,
90+5', Gomes L. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting B won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Varzim may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sporting B has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Sporting B won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting B won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon B
Portuguese Liga 3
26.04.25	1 Dezembro - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Belenenses - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Lusitânia - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
30.03.25	Amarante - Sporting Lisbon B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TTWLW
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
26.04.25	Varzim - Belenenses	0:0 ✺
19.04.25	Atlético CP - Varzim	0:2 ✺
12.04.25	Varzim - Lusitânia	4:0 ✺
06.04.25	Amarante - Varzim	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Fafe - Varzim	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
09.03.25	Varzim - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
29.04.18	Varzim - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1
16.12.17	Sporting Lisbon B - Varzim	1:0
15.02.17	Sporting Lisbon B - Varzim	1:2
11.09.16	Varzim - Sporting Lisbon B	3:0
16.03.16	Varzim - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1
31.10.15	Sporting Lisbon B - Varzim	0:0

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