Match Info

J1 League - Round 11

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Panasonic Stadium Suita (Suita)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Gamba Osaka		Fagiano Okayama

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.8	5	Watch
	1.7	3.6	4.65	Watch
	1.74	3.74	5.27
	1.77	3.68	4.63	Watch
	1.7	3.4	4.8
	1.73	3.56	4.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.81)	3.63 ↑ (3.58)	4.86 ↑ (4.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gamba Osaka
54.9%

Draw
25.8%

Fagiano Okayama
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

26%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

22.3%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gamba Osaka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fagiano Okayama could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Gamba Osaka - Fagiano Okayama Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Gamba Osaka (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Gamba Osaka (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Gamba Osaka will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gamba Osaka (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 15. Kishimoto T. 5. Miura G. 4. Nakatani S. (C) 21. Hatsuse R. 13. Abe S. 16. Suzuki T. 17. Yamashita R. 11. Jebali I. 97. Welton 23. Hummet D.	1. Moser L. (G) 48. Tatsuta Y. 18. Tagami D. 6. Omori H. 26. Motoyama H. 41. Miyamoto E. 5. Ogura K. 45. Browne N. 27. Kimura T. 8. Esaka A. (C) 22. Ichimi K.
Substitutes
18. Araki R. (G) 19. Ikegaya G. 10. Kurata S. 8. Meshino R. 42. Minamino H. 27. Mito R. 47. Nakano S. 44. Okunuki K. 7. Usami T.	4. Abe K. 3. Fujii K. 52. Hamada T. (G) 40. Kawano K. 9. Leo Gaucho 28. Matsumoto M. 66. Nishikawa J. 51. Shirai K. 98. Werik Popo
Coaches
Wissing J.	Kiyama T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Higashiguchi M. (Own goal),
26', 1 - 1, Kishimoto T. ⚽, Miura G. (A),
42', Browne N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Motoyama H. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
57', Browne N. ↓, Shirai K. ↑,
60', Suzuki T. ↓, Mito R. ↑,
61', Hummet D. ↓, Usami T. ↑,
61', Yamashita R. ↓, Okunuki K. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Jebali I. ⚽, Usami T. (A),
67', Ichimi K. ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
67', Kimura T. ↓, Kawano K. ↑,
68', Welton ↓, Meshino R. ↑,
72', 2 - 2, Esaka A. ⚽, Werik Popo (A),
74', Miura G. 🟨,
85', Ogura K. ↓, Nishikawa J. ↑,
88', Hatsuse R. ↓, Nakano S. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 3)
1, Usami T. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Esaka A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Abe S. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Tagami D. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Meshino R. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Kawano K. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Okunuki K. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Werik Popo (Penalty Awarded),
5, Miura G. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)).

Gamba Osaka has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Okayama's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gamba Osaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gamba Osaka could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Fukuoka S. (Hamstring Injury) Ichimori J. (Finger Injury) Sasaki S. (Hamstring Injury) Uenaka A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Okayama: Tabei R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Okayama: Fujita I. (Injury) Kudo K. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1.3:2).

Including home match between the teams, Gamba Osaka won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Gamba Osaka	4	1	2	1	6:7	-1	5
13	Okayama	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gamba Osaka
AFC Champions League 2
15.04.26	Bangkok United - Gamba Osaka	0:3 ✺
Japan J1 League
11.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Cerezo Osaka	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
08.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Bangkok United	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
04.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Gamba Osaka	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLWL
- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
11.04.26	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	5:1 ✺
05.04.26	Fagiano Okayama - Vissel Kobe	1:4 ✺
21.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
22.02.26	Fagiano Okayama - Gamba Osaka	1:2
10.08.25	Gamba Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	0:3
26.02.25	Fagiano Okayama - Gamba Osaka	2:0
Japan J2 League
04.08.13	Fagiano Okayama - Gamba Osaka	2:3

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