Match Info

J1 League - Round 13

Date: 29 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium (Kashiwa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan
World	Onefootball


	Kashiwa Reysol		Tokyo

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.3	2.45	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.45
	2.4	3.25	2.78
	2.53	3.45	2.88
	2.47	3.43	2.81	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.45
	2.44	3.34	2.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.27)	3.32 ↓ (3.47)	2.65 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kashiwa Reysol
36.4%

Draw
28.3%

Tokyo
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

27.2%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

27%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kashiwa Reysol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kashiwa Reysol's form might have worsened.

Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kashiwa Reysol, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Kashiwa will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tokyo will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Nagai K. (G) 42. Harada W. 4. Koga T. (C) 26. Sugioka D. 32. Yamanouchi Y. 21. Konishi Y. 39. Nakagawa N. 15. Komi Y. 20. Segawa Y. 16. Yuruki K. 9. Hosoya M.	81. Kim Seung-Gyu (G) 2. Muroya S. (C) 15. Omori R. 17. Inamura H. 42. Hashimoto K. 16. Sato K. 18. Hashimoto K. 27. Tokiwa K. 22. Endo K. 9. Marcelo Ryan 23. Sato R.
Substitutes
88. Baba S. 40. Harakawa R. 18. Kakita Y. 46. Matsumoto K. (G) 2. Mitsumaru H. 14. Okubo T. 38. Shimano R. 28. Toshima S. 87. Yamauchi H.	10. Higashi K. 8. Ko T. 3. Morishige M. 39. Nakagawa T. 28. Nozawa L. 55. Otani D. C. 44. Suzuki K. 1. Tanaka H. (G) 71. Yamada F.
Coaches
Rodriguez R.	Matsuhashi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Sugioka D. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Endo K. ⚽, Marcelo Ryan (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Konishi Y. ↓, Harakawa R. ↑,
46', Hosoya M. ↓, Kakita Y. ↑,
57', Komi Y. ↓, Okubo T. ↑,
60', 0 - 2, Sato R. ⚽, Marcelo Ryan (A),
67', Sugioka D. ↓, Yamauchi H. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Nakagawa N. ⚽,
73', Endo K. ↓, Nozawa L. ↑,
73', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Otani D. C. ↑,
85', Nakagawa N. ↓, Shimano R. ↑,
85', Tokiwa K. ↓, Ko T. ↑,
89', 1 - 3, Sato R. (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', Sato K. ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
90+1', Sato R. ↓, Nakagawa T. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kashiwa won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Tokyo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Kashiwa: Koizumi Y. (Yellow Cards) Kumasaka K. (Knee Injury) Tezuka K. (Knee Injury) Watai M. (Knee Injury) Yamada Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Tokyo: Arai Y. (Knee Injury) Nagakura M. (Hamstring Injury) Nagatomo Y. (Hamstring Injury) Tawaratsumida K. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kashiwa won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:28. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Kashiwa won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:20. (average 1.4:1.8).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kashiwa Reysol: 11.22% FC Tokyo: 11.22%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	4	4	0	0	10:4	6	12
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8:7	1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Kashiwa Reysol - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 41.65%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Tokyo - the odds 3.04 are the expected chance of winning is 31.1%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
24.04.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers	0:1 ✺
19.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Kashiwa Reysol	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Yokohama F. Marinos	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Mito HollyHock	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWW
- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
24.04.26	Tokyo - Mito HollyHock	5:2 ✺
11.04.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Tokyo	1:3 ✺
05.04.26	Tokyo - Machida Zelvia	0:1 penalties ✺
01.04.26	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo	0:3 ✺
22.03.26	Tokyo Verdy - Tokyo	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
28.02.26	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	0:2
05.07.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo	1:0
11.04.25	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1
06.07.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo	3:2
11.05.24	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	3:3
01.07.23	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	1:0
26.02.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo	1:1

Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide